SAC Week 9 Preview

November 1st, 2024 5:00pm

There are just three weeks left of the regular season, and it is getting a little bit tight in the divisional races. But November football is when the boys turn into men in college football, and we shall see who is ready to make that final push. Who are the contenders? Who are the pretenders? Emory & Henry took down Carson-Newman last week to gain control in the Mountain division. Lenoir-Rhyne beat Limestone, setting up a monumental showdown between the bricks with Wingate this weekend. Meanwhile some others saw their playoff hopes go down like a one-winged duck during duck season.

This past Monday, we also saw the first regional rankings released by the NCAA Division II football championship committee. As a reminder to all readers, this initial release of the rankings is not ordered one through ten. This is an unranked list of the top ten teams in each super region. The first official release of ordered rankings will be released on Monday, November 4. The initial release saw four SAC programs under consideration: Carson-Newman, Emory & Henry, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Wingate. The latest bracketology (via InkBlot Sports) has Emory & Henry currently as the #3 seed, followed by Carson-Newman at #4. Remember, or if you are new to how the D2 football playoffs work, only the top four teams in the region are seeded. The remaining three teams in each region are unseeded and will be paired with a 2, 3, or 4 seed in the first round. It is possible for an unseeded team to be moved to another region if it minimizes air travel or eliminates first round re-matches without increasing air travel (see Virginia Union and Shepherd in 2023).

Best of luck this weekend guys!

Players of the Week

Offense: JR Martin (Mars Hill)- 22 of 26 passing, 311 yards, 1 TD; 41 yards rushing and 1 TD.

Defense: Jarrell Harrison (Emory & Henry)- made 11 tackles, including a team-best 3.5 tackles for loss; game sealing INT.

Special Teams: Stefaan Forbes (Tusculum)- averaged 51.5 yards per punt to lead the Pioneers to a 30-28 win over Anderson.

Last Week: 4-2

Season: 45-11

#23 Emory & Henry Wasps at Mars Hill Lions

Location: Mars Hill, NC / 1 PM

Line: Mars Hill -6.5 / SP+: Emory & Henry wins, 23.3-21.4.

Series:

Emory & Henry forced two first half turnovers, and responded with one play touchdown drives in the 2^nd quarter within 1:41 seconds of each other to take advantage and eventually take a 17-3 halftime lead over then unbeaten Carson-Newman. The Wasps would give up a quick touchdown in the early 3^rd, before shutting it down the rest of the way, defeating the Eagles 17-10. The Wasps secondary had two tremendous interceptions last in the 4^th quarter to seal the deal and giving Coach Hunter’s squad control of their destiny in the mountain division with two weeks to go before the SAC championship. Jordan Jackson had 64 yards on 17 carries, but the first half was the Charles Mutter III show. He had a 39-yard touchdown run, and then a 43-yard touchdown pass to Cam Peoples that put the Wasps ahead for good. Mutter III finished 7 of 14 for 120 yards and 1 touchdown, but also rushed for 116 yards on 13 carries. Chendrick Cann and Jarrell Harrison (SAC DPOTW) picked off Tre Luttrell late, as the Turnover Kings forced the eagles to a season high four. Just weeks after the biggest win in program history, they did it again. Now, they have an even bigger road test at another place who lays claim to the toughest place to win in the league.

Mars Hill found itself trailing UVA Wise 10-7 after the 1^st quarter last Saturday before running off 17 unanswered 2^nd quarter points to take a 24-10 lead midway through. Wise would make it a one-score game late in the 3^rd quarter and it would stay that way until Courtney Slocum would pick off Cooper Wick, the Lions defenses’ 4^th interception of the day, and return it 34 yards to the house just after the two-minute timeout, sealing the victory for Coach Clifton’s club. Before Slocum, Tristan Rankin, Cherron Holt and Lovelle Williams each recorded interceptions for Mars Hill. JR Martin was at it once again, completing 22 of 26 passes for 311 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing 15 times for 41 yards and a score. Hence why he was SAC Offensive Player of the Week. Jon Gullette reached the end zone on the day (23-76-1), and tight end Beau DeBerry exploded for 116 yards on 7 catches, both season highs. The Lions have now won 3 of 4 heading into November.

Prediction: Lions upset the Wasps

I think Mars Hill, schematically, is a bad matchup for the Wasps. While there are some similarities between the two quarterbacks, Martin is consistently a gamechanger and a little more efficient both running and passing the ball. Mars Hill also has some talent on the outside and Beau DeBerry showed last week why he’s one of the best tight ends in the conference. The biggest key though when you play against Emory & Henry is not turning the ball over. Their secondary is extremely gifted and they don’t lead the nation in forced turnovers by luck or fluke or whatever you want to call it. They force you to make mistakes and then do a good job of capitalizing on those mistakes (something they didn’t do last year). My other big concern for the Wasps is they have not played very well on the road this year overall. Last time they got a big win, they almost got beat on the road. This time, coming off the big win over C-N and having a lot more eyes looking, and against a much better opponent, I think they fall. But this should be a heck of a ball game.

Wingate Bulldogs at #16 Lenoir-Rhyne Bears

Location: Hickory, NC / 1 PM

Line: Lenoir-Rhyne -4.5 / SP+: Lenoir-Rhyne wins, 22.0-20.7.

Series: Lenoir-Rhyne leads series, 24-15. (Wingate won the last meeting, 34-30, in 2023)

It took a lot more than most expected, but the Wingate Bulldogs and Coach Jordan got the turkey cooked and held off a feisty Catawba team last Saturday, 24-15, to improve to 6-1 on the season. It was not pretty by any means, as Catawba had multiple opportunities to pull off the massive upset. Wingate used a stop on downs last in the 4^th quarter, and then Xavier Pugh took off on a 57-yard scamper when they were trying to run out the clock to finish off their in-state rivals. Brooks Bentley didn’t have his best day, going 9 of 21 for 172 yards, but the Wingate run game was lethal. Xavier Pugh rushed just four times, but for 140 yards including two trips to pay dirt. O’Brien Barnett nearly rushed for 100 yards as well, finishing up at 97. I normally would be concerned if a defense gave up 156 yards to one guy running the ball, but LJ Turner has been unconscious this last month. I’d joke the Bulldogs defense is regressing, going from 0 points to 0 to 12 to 15, but they’re still #1 in the conference in total, rushing, and passing defense. The Bulldogs are peaking at just the right time and are heading to war between the bricks feeling quite confident.  

At the end of the day, it’s about finding a way to win. Despite some major contributors missing themselves, Lenoir-Rhyne fought back from a two-score deficit early to win a crucial divisional matchup against Limestone, 21-19. While the run game (still rushed for 92) was mostly held in check, Jalen Ferguson stepped up and delivered three big touchdown passes to three different Bears receivers. It was the 2^nd time this year the redshirt junior has thrown for 3+ touchdowns, caught by Tye Roberson, Songa Yates, and Adonis McDaniel. It was obvious the Bears run defense was missed all-everything lineman Andre Jefferson, as they were gashed for 184 yards rushing. Nic Cheeley and Chris Brown delivered big interceptions, and Cheeley also forced a fumble. The Bears didn’t sack the quarterback, which is a credit to the Limestone OL. It wasn’t dominant, but once again, Doug Socha’s team got the paper turned in on time and got through it, and keeps it’s division and conference championship hope rolling, and a trip to the playoffs still in sight. I said before, a win is a win, whether it’s by 2 or 100!

Prediction: Bulldogs defense rolls, Piedmont Division Championship all locked up

As I said on twitter earlier this week, Wingate vs. Lenoir-Rhyne gives off serious 2000’s Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers vibes. Two outstanding defenses year in and year out and they play fast and physically. I like Wingate in this game, and I like them a lot. First and foremost, the Bulldogs aren’t scared of playing between the bricks. They’ve won 3 of the last 5 in Hickory. Secondly, I haven’t seen anything from Lenoir-Rhyne offensively over the past month and change that has me convinced they are going to move the ball successfully against the Bulldogs. And it’s not for a lack of playmakers, but the Bears offense just doesn’t seem thus far to have the “score a lot of points in a hurry” like they did last year and in the past few years. However, if the Bears can force some miscues, and avoid some themselves, I think they can obviously get the win. Wingate is just rolling, and is playing better than anyone right now in the conference.

Tusculum Pioneers at UVA Wise Cavaliers

Location: Wise, VA / 2 PM

Line: Tusculum -5.5 / SP+: UVA Wise wins, 25.0-23.7.

Series: Tusculum leads series, 8-6. (Tusculum won the last meeting, 35-7, in 2023)

You could feel it coming for a couple of weeks now (minus the Mars Hill game), but Billy Taylor finally got his first win as head honcho of Tusculum football, defeating Anderson 30-28. The win snapped a seven-game losing streak dating back to last season! It was a matter of doing just enough on offense, and making just enough plays on the other side of the ball. The Pioneers did an excellent job of scoring when they got into Trojan territory and put up nearly 400 yards of offense, led by JoJo Restall, Jalen Hunt and Otasowie Dion. The trio rushed 24 times for 210 yards and 3 scores on the day. Matthew Palazzo had one of his best statistical days of the season, completing 11 of 17 attempts for 193 yards and a score. 90 of those yards came on one play, where Corey Moraux turned on the jets for the LONG score. While the defense struggled and gave up a lot of yards, they made some massive stops on third down to force field goal tries.

Despite giving up 445 yards of offense to Mars Hill and (at that point) turning the ball over three times, UVA Wise still had a chance to pull off a big Mountain division win last Saturday. Cooper Wick, starting in place of the unavailable Jake Corkren, then threw his 4^th interception of the day and it was returned for a game sealing touchdown, as UVA Wise fell to Mars Hill, 31-17. In his first start for the Cavaliers, the Maryville transfer was 17 of 32 for 166 yards on the day. Unfortunately, he never found the end zone for his own team. Freshman back Ian Scammell rushed for a season high 117 yards on 15 carries and a score, while Dejauvis Dozier added 68 yards on 11 carries and a score. The run blocking was so good in this game, giving the Highland Cavaliers plenty of room to run and put pressure on the Lions defense.  Brub Hines III was able to get a pass breakup and led the team with eight tackles, but the Cavaliers defense just struggled to slow down the dynamic JR Martin.  I’ve said it many times, I have been beyond impressed with the resilience UVA Wise has shown this year compared to the past few years, and they’ve caught some folks sleeping this year at times.

Prediction: UVA Wise gets win #3

Another week, another Tusculum game that I am not sure about. The Pioneers have a slight edge defensively (giving up seven less yards a game), but the Cavaliers give up less points. This should be a back-and-forth game with battles of strengths against weaknesses. Tusculum is 5^th in the league in running the ball and 6^th against the run. UVA Wise is 11^th in running and 11^th in rush defense. On the flip side, the Cavaliers struggle to stop the pass, and are slightly below middle of the pack in passing yards per game, Tusculum is not very good passing or defending the pass. If Jake Corkren is healthy, I go with Wise, but if he’s not, I think the Pioneers get themselves a little win streak going.

Catawba Indians at Barton Bulldogs

Location: Wilson, NC / 2 PM

Line: Catawba -1.5 / SP+: Barton wins, 26.6-26.2

Series: Catawba leads series, 2-1. (Catawba won the last meeting, 32-27, in 2023)

One thing I missed in last week’s column was I thought Catawba would have a rough day at Wingate. Little did I know that it would take a Xavier Pugh touchdown late and a 4^th down stop for Wingate to hold on to beat Catawba, 24-15. The Indians have now lost three straight, and five of six in the conference. And those five SAC losses were by an average of 4.4 points. So, the “Catawba losing in heartbreaking fashion” streak continued, as did LJ Turner’s destroying of run defense’s tour. The junior running back was “held” to an October low of just 156 yards on 25 carries and scored a touchdown in the 7^th consecutive game. He averaged 221.5 yards per game in October. Hunter Sheppard was 18 of 30 for 148 yards and one touchdown, and Kobe Christian had a solid day. The Indians just couldn’t stop the Bulldog run game, and the kicking game hurt them (two missed field goals and a missed extra point). The Indians were expected to be a dark horse team in the Piedmont this year and injuries have hurt them, so maybe this can be a moving forward towards 2025 game for them.

A Jayden Flood-Brown touchdown pass (yes you read that correctly) gave the Barton Bulldogs a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter last weekend before Newberry rattled off 20 unanswered. Coach Hester’s crew would spend the rest of the day trying to get back within a score, managing to get within 8 early in the 4^th quarter. The Bulldogs fell 41-25 and cemented a losing season. On top of his touchdown pass in the 1^st quarter, Flood-Brown added a touchdown grab later. The surprise star of the day was freshman Jackson Parrish. The Graham, North Carolina native rushed for a career-high 102 yards on 21 carries to lead the ‘Dogs rushing attack. While there were some positives to be found in the loss (like putting up nearly 370 yards of total offense, a number they hadn’t been close to in a month), the defense continued to struggle, giving up nearly 10 yards per play. They might be in for another long day this weekend against LJ Turner and the run game.

Prediction: Catawba finally breaks the streak

LJ Turner national player of the week vibes for this one. It’s been a tough luck season for Catawba, but Barton has not had a great 2024 either. I give the Indians the edge due to the run game and how it should give them fits and I don’t see a way Barton makes enough stops. They have struggled all year against the run, ranking dead last in the SAC. If Barton takes away the run and forces the Indians to throw they could have some success, as the Bulldogs rank 2^nd in the league in passing defense. Overall, Catawba’s offense should be able to take advantage and even though the Indians defense isn’t great, Barton’s inability to move the ball makes one think this could get ugly late.

Anderson Trojans at #25 Carson-Newman Eagles

Location: Jefferson City, TN / 3 PM

Line: Carson-Newman -25.5 / SP+: Carson-Newman wins, 35.9-13.5

Series: First Ever Meeting

Anderson dropped a tough divisional matchup last weekend to Tusculum, 30-28. The Trojans had a 14-10 lead late in the first half, before giving up 14 points in the final 5:35 to give Tusculum a 24-14 halftime lead. Colton Smith’s 2-yard fumble recovery got things back within three, but then the Pioneers answered with a 90-yard touchdown pass just :23 later. Anderson’s offense put nearly 400 yards in this one, and the defense forced two turnovers, but four drives ending in Pioneer territory and coming away with zero points ended up being the difference. Three of those four were Ross Burnette missed three field goals. Tyler Wesley completed 18 of 34 passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns, while Bryson James led the rushing attack with 78 yards on the ground. Most of the damage in the air was Jalon Warthen-Carr (shocked I know), and Kenneth Brown. The two combined for 221 yards on 11 catches and 2 scores. For all the positives though, the defense struggled to get Tusculum off the field and Tusculum converted drives to points, with all 5 drives in Trojan territory leading to points. The task gets even tougher this week for Coach Lamb’s team.

Carson-Newman scored first last weekend to take a 3-0 lead. Back-to-back drives ended in fumbles, and a disastrous 2^nd quarter found the Eagles down 17-3 at the intermission. After a “Josh Allen”-esqe throw from Zane Whitson while going out of bounds, Tre Luttrell came in and took the Eagles down the field to make it a seven-point game. Unfortunately for the then-undefeated Eagles, they would score again. Emory & Henry forced a season high four turnovers, and the Eagles failed to clinch the division and are now forced to cheer for Mars Hill and UVA Wise the next two weeks, if they take care of business. The Eagles did manage to rush for 300+ again, with Jayden Sullins (18 for 92), Don Bradley (11 for 65), Cam Ferguson (14 for 61) and Zane Whitson (15 for 56) all rushing for 50+ yards. But it was the Eagles lack of ability to throw the ball that also doomed them, completing just 1 of 11 attempts and the one was an incredible grab by Cade Meeks. The defense played, especially in the 2^nd half, the best I thought they’ve played in a few weeks, giving the EKG Eagles a chance. Mekhi Brown and Storm Livesay forced fumbles, but Kendall Williams was sensational with 10 tackles. The Eagles may need some help to get to the SAC title game, but they still have a lot in front of them in Ingram Year 1.

Prediction: Eagles go to 8-1.

The Eagles got punched in the nose last week, and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond. Will the Wasps beat them twice? Or will they take out some frustration on Anderson. I like Carson-Newman to bounce back and win big on homecoming at Mossy Creek. I’d like to see if they can get a little bit of the pass game that’s helped the run early on going, but I just don’t think Anderson can make enough stops. If Anderson can force some turnovers like E&H did last week, they could make the Eagles sweat, but I think the Eagles are too talented on both sides of the ball.

Limestone Saints at Newberry Wolves

Location: Newberry, SC / 4 PM

Line: Limestone -3.5 / SP+: Limestone wins, 27.7-23.8.

Series: Newberry leads series, 6-3. (Limestone won the last meeting, 28-24, in 2023)

Limestone jumped out to a 10-0 lead last weekend against Lenoir-Rhyne, before the Bears took a 14-13 lead into the half. It was a defensive battle in the second half, with Lenoir-Rhyne holding on to win 21-19 over the Saints. The first thing folks would notice watching this game was Limestone QB Dustin Noller’s absence due to injury. Jayden Stinson, a Murray State transfer, stepped in and had an okay day running the offense, as Stinson completed 16 of 27 passes for 191 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Limestone got Kevin Lalin back in the backfield, and he carried the ball for 162 yards. Noller’s absence was missed, as Limestone had four drives in the game end in Lenoir-Rhyne territory. The defense played well enough to give the offense a chance to win the game, but the tough loss really puts Limestone’s chances of a 3^rd consecutive playoff trip at almost zero.

Newberry got 33 of it’s 41 points in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarter last weekend on it’s way to a 41-25 win over the Barton Bulldogs. The Wolves led by as many as 16 at a couple different points in the 2^nd half, with Trakell Murray delivering the final nail in the coffin with 7:22 to go from 15 yards out. It was a vintage Wolves effort on the offensive side of the ball, rushing for 198 yards and three different touchdown scorers. Reed Charpia only completed seven passes, but threw for 182 yards, 119 of those belonging to Rico Dorsey Jr. The defense forced a turnover but struggled to slow down the Bulldogs offense (164 in the air, 204 on the ground), which gives me great trepidation this week. Newberry still has a shot to finish the season strong and possibly above .500, but the schedule is brutal: Limestone, at Wingate, and then possibly home vs. Emory & Henry. Woof.

Prediction: Limestone wins, improves to 6-3 in 2024.

Even if Dustin Noller is not available for the Saints, I have more confidence in them than I do Newberry. If Noller does play, then this could get ugly. Limestone is extremely talented at the skill positions and the defense played fairly well against Lenoir-Rhyne last weekend. Newberry has struggled to throw the ball this year, but their run game can be tough to stop when Spells/Murray/Wright get going. If Newberry is going to win this one, they’ll need a vintage Wolves performance, forcing multiple turnovers and scoring on short fields. I’ll take what I know over what I’m not confident in.

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