October 31st, 2024 1:10pm
Week 8 Recap
The two possible trap games that could have prevented our LSC Clash of the Titans both went without a hitch, although a slow start by Angelo State did have me switch on the Upset Alert momentarily. Central Washington and Angelo State both won going away, with CWU taking advantage of 3 Tanner Volk interceptions to beat Midwestern State and ASU scoring the final 43 points of the game to run away from Sul Ross State.
Also, Eastern New Mexico won the Chile Bowl and the tile of best Division 2 football team in New Mexico. Texas-Permian Basin played keep away and halted West Texas A&M’s 2-game winning streak, and Texas A&M-Kingsville used two goal-line stands in the fourth quarter to end Western Oregon’s 5-game win streak.
Now, about last week:
Eastern New Mexico wins at Western New Mexico 41-34
What the Chile Bowl really could have used was one or two WNMU stops where the Mustangs could have more than a handful of plays with a chance to tie the game. WNMU was down by 7 points three times in the game:
The whole game was a story of ENMU keeping WNMU at arms’ length after getting out to a 20-0 lead in the first quarter. While the Mustangs would get to within a touchdown in the second quarter, they were never in position to get closer or to tie the game, and the punishing ENMU ground game, which gained 495 yards, made the plays they needed to make to win. In particular, Ron Craten scored 3 touchdowns and gained 216 yards to lead the Greyhounds, who not only win the Chile Bowl after a 2-year losing streak, but they can claim the title of the best Division 2 football team in New Mexico.
Eastern New Mexico improves to 3-5 and Western New Mexico falls to 2-7.
Texas A&M-Kingsville wins at Western Oregon 21-14
At the end of the season when we look back at the best games of the LSC season, this game will be near the top of that list. As much as I have said that I don’t completely trust Western Oregon in spots like this, their effort in this game went a long way toward turning my opinion on them. Now they need to keep it going for the rest of the season (and hopefully) into the next.
Kingsville-they showed me something too. The Javelinas could have easily laid down after being shut out the last two weeks by the LSC’s top two teams, but they didn’t. In fact, after return-starting quarterback Kannon Williams was removed after two series, his replacement Jalen Brown (who would pass for 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions) came in and from moment one set the tone that the Javelinas were going to go all-out. Brown completed his first 2 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown to Jackson Allen to answer WOU’s initial score on a 6-yard Jordan McCarty run (Kainoa Jones was out, so McCarty went the whole way for WOU).
This game had the feeling of one of those old-school 15-round heavyweight fights, with both sides giving it all they had the whole way. Consider the fourth quarter, which started with TAMUK up 21-14. WOU got to the TAMUK 1-yard line, where two Kainoa Sayre runs went nowhere, and the second was fumbled away to the Javelinas. After two drives that led to nothing, WOU blocked a Luke Shaffer punto attempt and had the ball at the TAMUK 20-yard line. Back down to the 2 the Wolves went, and it was this:
The Kingsville defensive line had 2 (I guess it’s actually 1.5, but who's counting?) goal-line stands in the fourth quarter
Texas A&M-Kingsville improves to 5-3 and Western Oregon falls to 5-3.
Angelo State wins at home against Sul Ross State 57-10
OK, so after Sul Ross State pulled to within 14-10 (early in the second quarter) I admit I turned on my Upset Alert on this game. Could we possibly have Angelo State in a trap game before the big one with Central Washington? It took about 5 minutes for Angelo State to pull the plug on the Upset Alert, scoring three touchdowns in the last five minutes of the second quarter (including two in 21 seconds) to commence a full-scale demolition of the Lobos. ASU scored the game’s last 43 points, outgaining Sul Ross by 548 to 173 yards and scoring touchdowns on 8 of 10 drives after their first two drives went scoreless. Once again, Braeden Fuller led the way with 287 passing yards and a touchdown and still has yet to throw an interception this season.
Angelo State improves to 6-2 and Sul Ross State falls to 2-6.
Texas-Permian Basin wins at West Texas A&M 21-7
All the offense in this game was in the first quarter and barely the second quarter, and that was it. UTPB scored on their first three drives of the game, and WT didn’t, punting on four of their first five drives and then turning the ball over on three of their last four drives. The Buffaloes’ defense struggled to get off the field, as UTPB held the ball for over 12 minutes of the third quarter. UTPB was content with preserving their first-half lead with time-consuming drives in the second half (in addition to the dominant third quarter, they held the ball for over 18 minutes of the second half and converted 8 of 15 third downs). While the Falcons were playing keep away, the Buffaloes’ offense went from bad to worse, throwing two interceptions in the red zone. In a final insult, the Falcons ran off the last 4:56 of the clock to seal the win in a scoreless second half for both teams and ending the Buffaloes’ 2-game win streak.
Texas-Permian Basin improves to 5-4 and West Texas A&M falls to 3-5.
#13 Central Washington wins at home against Midwestern State 42-21
After picking off 13 passes in 2023 and winning awards as Division 2’s best defensive player in 2023, teams have gone out of their way to tailor their offensive game plans around avoiding Tanner Volk. NFL fans may remember this as being kind like what opposing teams would do with Deion Sanders – you just didn’t throw in his direction and hope you had success going after the other defensive backs. Somewhere along the way, I think Midwestern State either forgot or never got the memo. Volk intercepted three passes from three different MSU passers (one of them was the punter on a fake punt) in the first half, and CWU was in scoring position after all three interceptions, scoring 2 touchdowns and missing a 48-yard field goal. A close game in the first half became a 21-7 CWU lead at halftime in large part due to those interceptions. Even with the Volk defesnive onslaught, MSU kept things close, drawing within 21-14 on a 77-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Duncan to Adam Johnson. However, from that point on, the MSU defense had no answer for the Wildcats, who scored on their first three drives of the second half to extend their lead to 42-14. A late fourth-quarter MSU touchdown gave the final margin of victory for the Wildcats.
Central Washington improves to 6-2 and Midwestern State falls to 3-5.
Playoff Watch
The first set of Regional Rankings was released this week in the alphabetical format, so we only know who is in the top 10 but not what order they are exactly in. If you want any further statistical insights on where the top 10 teams might be ordered, go to Inkblot Sports (link is below) to look at their Super Region 4 rankings. They aren't the official NCAA rankings, but they're pretty darn close. Until then, here’s the alphabetical list, their overall records, conference, and who they are playing this week.
Angelo State (6,2; LSC) – Home for Central Washington
Augustana (6-1; NSIC) - Home for Concordia-St. Paul
Central Washington (6-2; LSC) – At Angelo State
Colorado Mesa (6-2; RMAC) – Home for Black Hills State
Colorado Mines (6-2; RMAC) – At New Mexico Highlands
CSU-Pueblo (7-1; RMAC) – At Western Colorado
Minnesota State-Mankato (6-2; NSIC) – At Northern State
Sioux Falls (6-2; NSIC) – Idle
Western Colorado (8-0; RMAC) – Home for CSU-Pueblo
Western Oregon (5-3; LSC) – At Midwestern State
The big games this week in terms of playoff positioning are the Central Washington/Angelo State and CSU-Pueblo/Western Colorado games. But of course, every game matters at this point of the season and any loss, especially an upset loss, can be devastating to your playoff chances. Bottom line – Win and your need for help from elsewhere decreases. Lose and well, hold on to your butts.
https://www.d2football.com/oct.-28-regional-rankings/
https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2425/mfb/sr4.html
LSC Standings
School | LSC | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
Angelo State | 6-0 | 6-2 | |
Central Washington | 5-1 | 6-2 | |
Western Oregon | 5-1 | 5-3 | |
Texas A&M-Kingsville | 4-2 | 5-3 | |
Texas-Permian Basin | 4-3 | 5-4 | |
West Texas A&M | 3-3 | 3-5 | |
Midwestern State | 2-4 | 3-5 | |
Eastern New Mexico | 1-5 | 3-5 | |
Sul Ross State | 1-5 | 2-6 | |
Western New Mexico | 0-7 | 2-7 | |
Week 9 Preview
The big one this week is in San Angelo, where Central Washington visits Angelo State in a game that could determine the LSC champion as well as be a potential playoff elimination game. The Wildcats and Rams both have two overall losses while CWU has just one Division 2 loss while ASU has 2. Win and improve your place on the top 10 list, lose and…we’ll see, I guess.
Western Oregon might still have something to say with just one Division 2 loss going into this week, but they need to win. This week’s game at Midwestern State will be their last best chance to win with Angelo State and Central Washington coming up after this week.
In games that don’t directly impact the playoff race, we have Eastern New Mexico looking to sweep their home-and-home series with Sul Ross State, and West Texas A&M tries to rebound from last week’s with a win at Kingsville.
All games are on Saturday, November 2. All game times are in the Central time zone.
Eastern New Mexico at Sul Ross State, 1:00 PM
Series History: Sul Ross State leads 13-12-1
Last meeting: 2024 (Eastern New Mexico won 36-17)
Eastern New Mexico versus Sul Ross State, Round 2.
Earlier this season these teams faced off in the second half of their non-conference series that started last year with an ENMU victory. This matchup will count toward the LSC standings.
I expect much of the same from this game as we saw from the first game – The Greyhounds ran for 371 yards and while this was a 22-17 game early in the fourth quarter, ENMU was able to extend their lead against a tired Sul Ross State defense and prevent any upset attempt. Sul Ross State has mostly been unable to make up for the deficiencies that came from being a team transitioning from the Division 3 level, particularly in terms of their physical presence up front. The Lobos have had significant difficulties controlling opposing running games and they haven’t gotten enough from their offense to make up for those defensive issues. They might get some points early, but ENMU should wear down their defense and rack up the rushing yards once again. Eastern New Mexico by 17 points.
#11 Central Washington at Angelo State, 6:00 PM
Series History: Angelo State leads 2-1
Last meeting: 2023 (Central Washington won 27-24)
The LSC Championship Game?
Right now, this is the matchup between the top two teams in the LSC and could very well decided the LSC championship, but Western Oregon might have something to say about who the LSC champion will be in the next couple weeks. But regardless of what the Wolves end up doing, this game has huge implications for not just the LSC but also the playoff rankings, since a Rams loss will be their third Division 2 loss. Also, remember from last season that a 3-loss Angelo State team finished ranked number 8 in Super Region 4. CWU would also have a third loss if they fall this week, but it would be their second Division 2 loss, which combined with their loss to UTPB could be very damaging to their playoff chances.
In last year’s game, ASU mounted a frantic comeback attempt from 27-10 down after a fake field goal try was intercepted for a touchdown by Tanner Volk. The Rams would come up just three points short in losing to CWU. This year, ASU has shown much more efficiency on offense with Braeden Fuller still yet to throw an interception. Both teams have been very strong defensively, with SU giving up 10 points a game and CWU 13 and giving up just 97 rushing yards a game. ASU has also forced 18 turnovers to CWU’s 11.
I look at the games both teams had against UTPB for comparison. CWU outgained UTPB but had four drives stall in Falcon territory in their loss. ASU had no such problems in a blowout win. I also think that the ASU defense is more likely to put their opponent in difficult situations with turnovers (with all apologies to Tanner Volk) and their offense (since the season’s first two games) has been more consistent and efficient. For those reasons, I’m going with the Rams in what could be another candidate for LSC game of the year. Angelo State by a field goal.
Western Oregon at Midwestern State, 7:00 PM
Series History: Midwestern State leads 2-1
Last meeting: 2023 (Midwestern State won 33-6)
With last week’s loss to Texas A&M-Kingsville, Western Oregon’s 5-game winning streak was snapped and their momentum towards a possible playoff spot slowed down, but not completely out. WOU has just one Division 2 loss (but has played just 6 Division 2 games) right now and games against high-level opponents the next two weeks, so if they want any chance at a playoff spot, this game is a must-win for the Wolves. To their benefit, WOU has had much more consistency in games (especially when it comes to running the ball and stopping the run )in 2024 despite using a 2-quarterback system for most of that time, while it seems MSU is still looking for the right signal caller and hasn’t had the rushing game or defense that I expected they would have going into the season. If MSU (who I guess will have Matthew Duncan at quarterback) can throw the ball against a WOU pass defense that has given up 238 yards a game, they might have a shot. Numbers-wise, the Wolves are better overall. Whether that translates to a road win in the middle of Texas, I guess we’ll see about that, but I’m going with WOU in a meat grinder. Western Oregon by a touchdown.
West Texas A&M at Texas A&M-Kingsville, 7:00 PM
Series History: Texas A&M-Kingsville leads 20-17
Last meeting: 2023 (Texas A&M-Kingsville won 28-21)
Kingsville comes back home after finally scoring some points and making two key defensive stands to beat Western Oregon. WT’s offense, especially their running game, was stuck in neutral, only managing a first-quarter touchdown in losing to UTPB. For WT, offense becomes much easier if they can run the ball. The Buffaloes have averaged 302 rushing yards in their 3 wins and 106 yards in their losses. Now, despite giving up 175 yards on the ground to Western Oregon, The Javelinas did have the two goal-line stands and they give up 89 rushing yards a game. Combine that with the problems that WT has had running the ball against better defenses, life might be tough on the ground for WT, and that doesn’t bode well for them. The Buffaloes’ defense should keep them in the game, but I see them struggling to score enough to win and Kingsville making a couple more plays to pull out the win. Texas A&M-Kingsville by a touchdown.
Texas-Permian Basin and Western New Mexico have the week off.