LSC Week Eleven Preview

November 9th, 2023 2:00pm

Week 10 Recap

Week 10 in the LSC saw Texas-Permian Basin continue their winning streak and keep pace with Central Washington going into what will be the LSC Championship Game this week.  Also, Eastern New Mexico holds off West Texas A&M and keeps the Wagon Wheel for the second straight year and now has a chance to have a winning record in Kelley Lee’s first season back.  Texas A&M-Kingsville ensures another winning season with a win over Western Oregon, and Angelo State keeps their faint playoff hopes alive with a win over Midwestern State. 

Now, about last week:

Eastern New Mexico wins at home over West Texas A&M 35-27

The Wagon Wheel stays in Portales. 

First-half leads of 10-0 and 13-7 by West Texas A&M were eventually erased by a relentless EMNU ground game, which gained 343 yards on the day and scored touchdowns on four of six second-half possessions.  Mario Sanchez accounted for 4 of the 5 Greyhounds touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 passing).  Weston Eget (251 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception) Ashton Dubose (24 passing yards and a touchdown) tried to bring the Buffaloes back from 28-13 and 35-20 deficits in the fourth quarter, but it was too little, too late as the Buffaloes; hopes ended when they couldn’t get off a Hail Mary pass at the end in an attempt to get in position to tie it. 

Eastern New Mexico improves to 5-5 and West Texas A&M ends their season at 3-7.

Texas-Permian Basin wins at Western New Mexico 56-7

So, maybe you were hoping for a trap game?  Maybe after UTPB punted on the first two drives, you might have thought that there might be an upset in the works? 

Then UTPB scored. 
And then they scored. 
And then they scored again.
And again.
And again.

After those two punts, UTPB scored EVERY time they had the ball, a total of eight touchdowns.  Only the end of the game clock stopped the Falcons the last time they had the ball, and even Father Time surely had a tough time stopping them on this day.  UTPB ran for 407 yards and threw for 224 yards and outgained WNMU by 631 to 93 total yards.  Simply put, it was another blowout win for UTPB and another blowout loss for WNMU. 

Texas-Permian Basin improves to 9-1 and Western New Mexico falls to 1-8.

Texas A&M-Kingsville wins at Western Oregon 34-27

Back in the 1980s there was a commercial for Perdue chicken whose jingle, if you heard it, could become quite the earworm.  It started out like this:

Pick, pick pick
Pick, pick pick
Pick, pick pick pick pick pick pick
Pick pick, pick pick pick pick

(Go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KS1bXE47Yk if you want the jingle stuck in your head all day.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)

Well, if you haven’t figured out the main theme of this game by now, it was picks, and lots of them from the TAMUK defense.  WOU quarterback Gannon Winker (208 yards passing and a touchdown) threw picks on three consecutive drives in the second quarter, with TAMUK scoring touchdowns on short fields following the last two picks to reverse an early 7-0 WOU lead to a 20-7 TAMUK halftime lead.  WOU would keep fighting back and were within 27-20 when Winker threw his fourth and final pick – A 35-yard pick-six by Khalen Leonard to put the Javelinas up 34-20 with 2:20 left.  It was also Winker’s last pass of the day, as Kainoa Jones led a last-gasp drive to pull the Wolves within 34-27 with 27 seconds left.  But WOU couldn’t get the ball back for one final chance with their onside kick attempt ending up in the hands of TAMUK wide receiver Jackson Allen. 

Mistakes, specifically those picks, were the difference in this one – WOU made most of them, and TAMUK took advantage of nearly all of them.  Wade Freeman III (173 yards and 4 touchdowns) also threw one pick, but WOU could not capitalize. 

Texas A&M-Kingsville improves to 6-3 and Western Oregon falls to 3-7.

Angelo State wins at home against Midwestern State 27-12

Angelo State had scoring drives of 63, 82, 88, and 99 yards and essentially played keep-away in building a 24-0 lead after three quarters.  MSU would score 12 points in the fourth quarter, but ASU did what they had to do on both sides of the ball, and what offensive success MSU had late in this one only attempts to cover up for the fact that ASU wasn’t threatened in this game at all and could have won by a much wider margin. 

Gerald Gardner threw for 334 yards on a day where the ASU running game could only gain 74 yards.  Devin Cross led MSU with 134 rushing yards and a touchdown, with many of those yards coming late in the game after the outcome was pretty much decided. 

Angelo State improves to 6-3 and Midwestern State falls to 4-5.

Playoff Watch

Another week, another set of rankings:

Well, everyone in the top 10 won this past week, so there wasn’t a whole lot of movement in the top 10 list, altohugh Angelo State and Wayne STate (Neb.) switched spots.  Angelo State and Texas A&M-Kingsville will need a lot less chalk and a lot more chaos to jump into the top 7. 

Matchups involving ranked teams this week include:

In the RMAC – Colorado Mines is at 0-10 Fort Lewis and Western Colorado is at 3-7 Adams State.

In the NSIC – Wayne State (Neb.)  is at 3-7 Concordia-St. Paul, MSU-Mankato hosts 8-2 UM-Duluth, and Bemidji State is at Augustana. 

In the LSC – Texas-Permian Basin hosts Central Washington, Angelo State hosts Western Oregon, and Texas A&M-Kingsville is at Midwestern State.

So, I have three questions regarding the LSC’s playoff chances:

1. Central Washington and Texas-Permian Basin play each other, and since one of them will lose, could either team drop into the number 7 spot or even out of the top 7 altogether?  My guess is that both teams are safe. 
2. What happens with Angelo State?  In one week they did get past one of the teams in the NSIC blockade in Wayne State (Neb).  Both ASU and WSC face 3-win teams, so neither will get much of a boost to their strength of schedule.  While either Bemidji State or Augustana will lose since they play each other and MSU-Mankato faces a tough game with UM-Duluth, could there be enough chaos to get ASU to the number 7 spot?  Is a three-loss ASU better than any of the three NSIC teams ahead of them?  Could ASU possibly be blocked by the loser of the CWU/UTPB game in the number 7 spot?  While the selection committee will have the final say, it does look like the gap between number 7 and number 8 in Region 4 might be too great for ASU to bridge.
3. Does Texas A&M-Kingsville have a chance to getting into the number 7 spot?  Well, if it’s going to be really tough for ASU to gain one spot, it’s likely near impossible for TAMUK to jump from the number 10 spot to the number 7 spot as well.  I am all for a little chaos, though.

LSC Standings

Week 11 Preview

The LSC title will be decided this week when Central Washington visits Texas-Permian Basin.  Both teams seem to be in solid position for a playoff spot, but only one of them will finish the LSC season undefeated.  It might still be possible for XX to fall out of the top 7 of the playoff rankings with a loss, but as of right now the chances of having two LSC playoff teams are strong. 

Angelo State and Texas A&M-Kingsville’s playoff hopes are hanging by a very thin thread.  They both need to win and get a lot of help to jump into the top 7. 

And last but not least, is the Green Chile Bowl.  While LSC supremacy or playoff position are not on the line in this one, Eastern New Mexico looks to finish 2023 with a winning record and New Mexico D2 supremacy, while Western New Mexico looks to end a very difficult 2023 season with a win.  

All games are on Saturday, November 11.  All game times are in the Central time zone.

Texas A&M-Kingsville at Midwestern State, 1:00 PM

Series History: Midwestern State leads 18-6

Last meeting: 2022 (Midwestern State won 41-37)

Texas A&M-Kingsville and Midwestern State have been near-mirror images of each other this season.  Both teams want to run the ball and play strong defense.  However, TAMUK has gotten more effective, albeit inconsistent, play from the quarterback position while MSU has had to almost exclusively rely on their running game to move the ball.  When a team is facing a solid defense, being one-dimensional on offense can make life very difficult, and I think that’s what MSU will be dealing with in this one.  In a game that will likely be a low-scoring grind, TAMUK has a little bit more depth on both sides of the ball and the motivation of maybe having a chance at the playoffs, and I think they will make enough plays to win.  Texas A&M-Kingsville by 10 points. 

Eastern New Mexico at Western New Mexico, 1:00 PM

Series History: Eastern New Mexico leads 39-12

Last meeting: 2022 (Western New Mexico won 38-24)

The Green Chile Bowl.

In what could be the deciding game of the 2023 New Mexico Three-Way Dance, let us take a look at the standings from earlier this season:

New Mexico Three-Way Dance Standings

ENMU could win the title outright by beating WNMU, and WNMU could force a three-way tie if they win. 

Comparing these two teams with new coaches, ENMU is clearly much further along in the transition process than WNMU, who have taken several steps back.  ENMU has taken their lumps, isn’t great on defense, but has taken quite well to Kelley Lee’s Triple Option offense, with quarterback Mario Sanchez quietly having a very strong season (13 passing touchdowns and just 1 interception; 426 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns).  ENMU has bounced back from a 5-game losing streak to win their last two, and are looking for a season-ending 3-game winning streak to match the 3-game winning streak they had to start the season. 

In stark contrast, Billy Hickman’s first year at WNMU has been just about as difficult as it could be.  WNMU has had difficulty on both sides of the ball, even having difficulty with their vaunted passing game, with Devin Larsen being out since the Western Oregon game in Week 6 and Hunter Davis taking the snaps since.  WNMU’s running game has been nonexistent (38 yards per game) and the defense has given up 46 points and 441 yards of offense per game.  That’s just about all the information I need to make my pick here. 

ENMU has their warts, but they are still quite a bit better than WNMU, and they will run their way to victory in the Green Chile Bowl, win the title of best D2 team in New Mexico, and clinch a winning season in Kelley Lee’s first season back at ENMU.  Eastern New Mexico by 17 points. 

#22 Central Washington at #16 Texas-Permian Basin, 2:00 PM

Series History: Central Washington leads 1-0

Last meeting: 2022 (Central Washington won 49-14)

The LSC Title Game.

Both Central Washington and Texas-Permian Basin enter this game with 7-0 LSC records and long winning streaks (CWU 7 games and UTPB 8), but they have done things very differently.  CWU has relied on a solid defense (giving up 22 points and 318 yards per game) and a strong running game while UTPB has had the best offense this side of Colorado Mines and the best quarterback in Region 4 not on Colorado Mines.  Midwestern State came the closest to stopping the Falcons in the LSC, giving up 21 points and 381 yards of offense although MSU never led in the game (Angelo State gave up 366 yards but gave up 28 points).  Western Colorado is probably the best match if you’re looking for a recipe to beat UTPB – Get up big early (UTPB was down 21-3, their biggest deficit this season) and control the ball with your defense and a deliberate offense.  Well, CWU checks off both boxes, especially in the defense department.  Tanner Volk leads the nation with 9 interceptions, leading a defense that has caused 19 turnovers on the season. 

Now, UTPB are no slouch defensively either.  The Falcons have also caused 19 turnovers and have number 9-ranked total defense in the country, giving up 251 yards and 17 points per game.  Their offense (46.4 points on 495 yards per game) leads the LSC by wide margins over the next closest team in Angelo State 31 points on 402 yards per game).  CWU, in comparison, averages 26 points and 350 yards of offense.   

How might this game end up?  CWU has a solid defense and running game and will need to ride them to a win.  However, UTPB has faced and beaten teams with statistically better defenses (Angelo State) and stronger running games (Midwestern State, but CWU is close).  To that end, CWU must create opportunities like Western Colorado did with getting short-field touchdowns, sustaining drives, and putting pressure on UTPB to make a comeback, something the Falcons only had to do once this season and failed at (but they almost did make that comeback).  If CWU can do that, they’re LSC champs.  I just don’t see it happening.  UTPB has far too many weapons on offense and is good enough on defense to hold the CWU offense back to finish a clean sweep of the LSC in 2023.  Texas-Permian Basin by 13 points. 

Western Oregon at Angelo State, 6:00 PM

Series History: Angelo State leads 4-0

Last meeting: 2022 (Angelo State won 30-7)

Western Oregon has had an execution problem this season.  In far too many cases this season, mistakes have sealed the Wolves’ doom.  Case in point last week, where Gannon Winker’s four interceptions were converted into 21 TAMUK points.  Life gets no easier for WOU against a statistically stronger defense than TAMUK.  WOU will need to get its running game going and keep it going as Winker has proven to be too unreliable on the season to be counted on to carry the offense.  Maybe WOU mixes in backup quarterback Kainoa Jones, who led a touchdown drive at the end of the TAMUK game? 

Angelo State has their playoff hopes hanging on by that very thin thread I mentioned earlier in this column and need a win, not just to keep hope alive, but to also make a statement that despite UTPB and CWU being at the top of the LSC this season, that the Rams are far from done.  Overall, ASU is simply better than WOU, who will put in a strong effort and keep it close for a half but will probably make a critical mistake or two to keep them from being in it the whole way.  Angelo State by 14 points.

West Texas A&M’s 2023 season ended last week.