LSC Week Eight Preview

October 24th, 2024 3:00am

LSC Week Eight Preview

Week 7 Recap

Road teams took 4 of the 5 games in Week 7, with Sul Ross State, who made history with their first LSC conference win since the 1975 season and first win over a Division 2 opponent as a Division 2 program, being the only home team to win. 

Also, from Week 7:

  1. Western Oregon won their fifth straight game, outlasting UTPB in overtime. 
  2. Angelo State is serving notice to the rest of the LSC with another demolition of a conference opponent, this time being Midwestern State
  3. Central Washington took out their frustration from last week’s stunner against UTPB by shutting out Texas A&M-Kingsville.
  4. West Texas A&M brought the Wagon Wheel back to Canyon behind a second consecutive week of strong games from Kanon Gibson and Tre’Jon Henderson.   

Now, about last week:

West Texas A&M wins at Eastern New Mexico 42-24

In this latest edition of the Wagon Wheel Game, I wouldn’t blame Buffaloes fans if they were a bit frustrated watching their team fall behind 17-6 in the first half after a dominating Week 7 win.  Where’s the consistency?  Where’s the revived offense from last week?  Well, Kanon Gibson (200 passing yards and 54 rushing yards, 3 total touchdowns) and Tre’Jon Henderson (21 carries for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns) took a little while to get going, but eventually they both got the WT offense going as the Buffaloes scored the game’s last 36 points, scoring touchdowns on 5 of their first 7 drives of the game.  ENMU just couldn’t keep up, having four possessions end in WT territory, including a critical turnover on downs at the WT 12-yard line when the Greyhounds were down 28-17.  WT would convert that (along with a second turnover on downs) to touchdowns and finish their scoring onslaught. 

West Texas A&M improves to 3-4 and Eastern New Mexico falls to 2-5. 

 

Western Oregon wins at Texas-Permian Basin 30-27 (1 OT)

Now that Western Oregon has surprisingly moved up to the top of the LSC, it’s time for the “Is Western Oregon For Real?” tour, with its first stop in Midland to face UTPB.  Everything then seemed to be going according to the plan of “Nope, Western Oregon is definitely NOT for real”, as the Falcons got out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead.  But the Wolves owned the second quarter, starting when Jordan McCarty found Damon Hickok for a 51-yard touchdown pass, starting a run of four consecutive WOU drives ending in scores (2 touchdowns and 2 field goals) in the second quarter to take a 20-14 lead into halftime.    

Once the second half started, the Falcons regained the lead, scoring on a 36-yard touchdown run by Camden Tyler in the third quarter and a 40-yard touchdown catch by Gunnar Asbeck to put UTPB ahead 27-20 with 11:30 left in the game.  After trading punts, WOU took the ball with 6:29 left and McCarty and Dominique Loggins refused to let the Wolves lose, going on an 8-play-44-yard drive capped by a game-tying 3-yard run by McCarty with 2:48 left.  Neither team threatened to score after that and the game headed to overtime. 

When UTPB took the ball to start overtime, Issac Mooring, who up to this point was having his best start as UTPB quarterback, made his first and biggest mistake of the game.  On third-and-9 from the 14-yard line, Mooring went for the end zone and was intercepted by Tyler Copeland, ending the Falcons’ drive and putting the Wolves in prime position to win, which they did on a 29-yard Emmett Keaton field goal. 

Of note in this game outside of the game being a full-on roller coaster – WOU held the ball for 40:59 of the game, rushing for 212 yards, led by Loggins’ 137 yards.  The Wolves’ held UTPB’s top UTPB rusher Kory Harris to 45 yards, allowed just 2 of 12 third downs, and kept the mistakes to a minimum.  For this week at least, WOU is for real. 

Western Oregon improves to 5-2 and Texas-Permian Basin falls to 4-4.

 

#15 Central Washington wins at Texas A&M-Kingsville 31-0

For much of the first half, this one looked like an ugly game that could favor the Javelinas – of the game’s first nine possessions, there were 6 punts, a lost fumble by CWU, a TAMUK turnover on downs, and a missed TAMUK field goal.  If anything, Kingsville had a slight advantage.  Then the Wildcats seemed to flip a switch to super-charge their offense with a single pass of 67 yards to Darrien Gaines from Kennedy McGill (193 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns; 81 rushing yards), and all of a sudden Javelina fans had to be thinking “Not the pass defense again!” 

Well, I will say that it wasn’t the pass defense that plagued the Javelinas from this point on.  It was the pass defense AND the run defense.  CWU ultimately outgained TAMUK on the ground by 207 to 65 yards and outpassed them by 193 to 64 yards.  A very bad time to have your worst defensive effort of the season if you’re TAMUK.  On the other hand, the CWU defense had its best game of the season, giving up 129 total yards, forcing two turnovers, and keeping the Javelinas out of the red zone the entire game.  For TAMUK, it is the second straight week they have been shut out, and a once-promising season has now fallen back to even. 

Central Washington improves to 6-2 and Texas A&M-Kingsville falls to 4-3.

 

Sul Ross State wins at home against Western New Mexico 34-20

In the first Golden Tumbleweed Game, Jash Magana and the Mustangs got out to a 10-0 first-quarter lead and I’m sure they thought they would be well on their way to a much-needed win.  But when the Lobos responded with a Jordan Morales 5-yard run to cut the WNMU lead to 10-7 just before halftime, this would be the start of a run that would make Sul Ross State history.  Starting with Morales’ touchdown run and ending early in the fourth quarter with a 27-yard touchdown run by Andrew Martinez, the Lobos ran off 28 straight points to go up 28-10.  WNMU’s fading hopes for a comeback ended when Quincy Blair took a Connor Ackerly (who replaced Magana in the fourth quarter and committed two turnovers that led to Sul Ross State touchdowns) pass 70 yards for a Sul Ross pick-six and a 34-13 lead that WNMU could not overcome. 

Congratulations to the Lobos their first win over a Division 2 and LSC opponent as a Division 2 program, as well as their first LSC conference win since they beat Tarleton State 10-7 for their only win of the 1975 season. 

Sul Ross State improves to 2-5 and Western New Mexico falls to 2-6.

 

Angelo State wins at Midwestern State 44-7

Look out for Angelo State.  Since their 26-20 win over ENMU on September 14, the Rams have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 139-14.  After a slow first quarter which still saw them out to a 7-0 on a 1-yard Braeden Fuller touchdown run after a near-pick six by Xavier Walton, the Rams exploded in the second quarter.  The Rams scored 27 points, scoring touchdowns on 4 of their 5 possessions in the quarter and forcing punts on all 5 MSU possessions.  ASU would continue to dominate into the second half, with MSU’s only touchdown coming with 2:11 left in the game.  Fuller kept his run of efficient play going by completing 15 of 19 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown while also leading ASU with 45 rushing yards.  Kaeden Smith got in some action as well, throwing for 72 yards but was intercepted twice.  For MSU, Devin Cross and Jalen March combined for just 47 rushing yards and Andrew Knebel had a rough week with 72 passing yards and an interception.    

Angelo State improves to 5-2 and Midwestern State falls to 3-4. 

 

LSC Standings

School

LSC

Overall

Angelo State

5-0

5-2

Western Oregon

5-0

5-2

Central Washington

5-1

6-2

Texas A&M-Kingsville

3-2

4-3

West Texas A&M

3-2

3-4

Texas-Permian Basin

3-3

4-4

Midwestern State

2-3

3-4

Sul Ross State

1-4

2-5

Eastern New Mexico

0-5

2-5

Western New Mexico

0-6

2-6

 

Week 8 Preview

Central Washington and Angelo State are on a collision course but need to win this week to keep pace with each other.  Western Oregon tries to stay undefeated in LSC play and Texas A&M-Kingsville tries to score.  West Texas A&M looks for revenge against UTPB, and then there’s the latest edition of the Green Chile Bowl which will decide the best Division 2 football team in New Mexico. 

 

All games are on Saturday, October 26.  All game times are in the Central time zone.

Eastern New Mexico at Western New Mexico, 1:00 PM 

Series History: Eastern New Mexico leads 40-12

Last meeting: 2023 (Western New Mexico won 25-24)

Green Chile Bowl 53.

This latest edition of the Green Chile Bowl will decide the winner of the Three-Way Dance for New Mexico Dominance, but more importantly, the winner will rise out of the LSC basement and end their 5-game losing streak.  Both teams have struggled on defense (ENMU has given up 36 points per game and WNMU 35) and while they have had their moments on offense, but not nearly enough times have they been able to put it all together to consistently win.  However, the offenses have been quite different, with ENMU having a more consistent attack, averaging 29 points a game to WNMU’s 17. 

Given the teams’ defensive struggles, I can see this game being a shootout, meaning, of course, it’s going to end 14-10 with both teams struggling to find offense.  For this game, I am looking at what I think the best unit on the field is, which I think is the ENMU offense, which averages 325 rushing yards a game.  With the WNMU defense giving up over 200 rushing yards per game, I’m having trouble seeing how WNMU can get enough stops to keep up with the Greyhounds.  Eastern New Mexico by 10 points. 

 

Texas A&M-Kingsville at Western Oregon, 3:05 PM

Series History: Western Oregon leads 5-3

Last meeting: 2023 (Texas A&M-Kingsville won 34-27)

It’s time for Week 2 of the “Is Western Oregon For Real?” tour, heading to WOU’s home field.  I will admit that I still can’t completely trust WOU even with their 5-game win streak, but I am impressed with how they are doing it – by putting together a full game and avoiding big mistakes that have cost them in the past.  The question now is whether they can keep doing it since the pressure is going to increase with each passing week.    

Despite using two quarterbacks for much of the season, the Wolves’ offense has been able to make timely passing plays, usually with Damon Hickok the recipient.  However, the WOU offense will need to gain some yardage on the ground against what was until last week a stout TAMUK run defense to be able to keep the ball and run the clock.  That could open up opportunities in the passing game, which the TAMUK defense has struggled against this season.   However, the WOU pass defense has given up 233 yards per game (and 346 total yards per game), a number comparable to TAMUK’s 242 yards per game (and 319 total yards per game), so there is a chance the Javelinas can get some offense going. 

From looking at their overall profiles, the margin for error is razor-thin for both teams.  WOU scores 29 points per game and gives up 24 points per game and TAMUK scores 22 per game and gives up 20 points per game.  Both teams are significantly better at running and stopping the run than they are with passing.  Both teams do have a similar number of interceptions (WOU 8, TAMUK 6) despite the overall struggles with pass defense.  I think this game will come down to whoever makes the least mistakes, and lately it has been Western Oregon.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this one needed extra time to decide a winner.  Western Oregon by 3 to 6 points.

 

Sul Ross State at Angelo State, 6:00 PM 

Series History: Angelo State leads 8-6

Last meeting: 1975 (Angelo State won 48-0, the second of two meetings in 1975)

In 1975, Angelo State met Sul Ross State twice, with the Rams winning both games by a combined score of 69-0 in what was the Lobos’ final season of their first LSC tenure.   The teams haven’t played each other since.  49 years later, I think the result might not be much different than those 1975 games.  Right now, Angelo State has just about everything going for them – defensive and offensive efficiency, decent special teams, experience at many positions, physical strength…you name it, they probably have it.  And Sul Ross State?  They do have a potentially dangerous passing game, but ASU gives up 160 passing yards a game and has intercepted 9 passes in 2024. 

I am honestly having a really hard time making a case for the Lobos other than maybe ASU is looking past them to Central Washington next week. Now, while there have been games in recent years where you can argue that one team wasn’t really interested in playing (like that one particular game with WT a couple years back), I don’t see that happening with ASU.  Angelo State by 21 points. 

 

Texas-Permian Basin at West Texas A&M, 7:00 PM

Series History: West Texas A&M leads 5-2

Last meeting: 2023 (Texas-Permian Basin won 41-40 in 1 overtime)

West Texas A&M came oh so close to being the lone LSC team to beat UTPB last season.  Kanon Gibson had 320 combined yards in that game, and he will be back looking for revenge against the Falcons.  The Buffaloes have gained a newfound confidence on offense that comes from a combination of Josh Lynn’s playcalling, Kanon Gibson’s return to the starting quarterback job, Tre’Jon Henderson’s solid running, and a couple games against lower-tier defenses from New Mexico.  For the Buffaloes to win, they will need to keep the momentum of the last two weeks (especially running the ball) going against a UTPB defense that, despite their 4-4 record, has given up just 280 yards (136 rushing) and 20 points per game.  For UTPB to win, they will need to do a little bit more on the ground since they held the ball for just 19 minutes and just 2 for 12 on third down in their loss to WOU.  Issac Mooring has improved each week he has been the UTPB quarterback, although the UTPB ground game could help the offense be more productive and take some pressure off him.  There is still quite a bit of talent on the Falcons, and the victory over CWU shows they can be a factor this season, even if it ends up being a spoiler.  Texas-Permian Basin by a touchdown. 

 

Midwestern State at #13 Central Washington, 8:00 PM

Series History: Central Washington leads 3-0

Last meeting: 2023 (Central Washington won 10-7)

Central Washington took their frustrations out on TAMUK last week, and now they return home (where they will be for 3 of their final 4 games) knowing they need to keep winning to stay in the playoff conversation.  Midwestern State was the latest victim of the Angelo State steamroller and has now lost 3 of their last 4 games, and they’re just looking to get back on track and back to an even record. 

With a defense that is statistically very close to Angelo State’s, I expect MSU to once again have a difficult time moving the ball and scoring points, which have already been issues for the Mustangs this season.  With an MSU defense that gives up 183 rushing yards and 190 passing yards per game, I expect CWU to be able to control the game on the ground and for Kennedy McGill to have some opportunities to make plays in the passing game.  The question for CWU is the then the same question that I asked of Angelo State this week – will CWU get caught looking past MSU to the Angelo State game next week?  I don’t see it.  Central Washington by 14 points.