LSC Week Seven Preview

October 18th, 2024 7:45am

Week 6 Recap

We are entering the time of year where teams whose hopes have them going past the regular season’s final week begin to get a little nervous.  In some cases, just one loss to anyone could be the difference between a playoff berth and a long winter home.  For Texas A&M-Kingsville and Central Washington, things just got a whole lot tighter with losses last week.  The Javelinas were shut out by a surprisingly effective Angelo State passing game 38-0, while the Wildcats lost a wrestling match to Texas-Permian Basin where the Falcons held the ball for all but 3 minutes of the fourth quarter. 

Now atop the LSC standings with 4-0 conference records are Angelo State and Western Oregon (yep, we went through this last week, Western Oregon, it's not a typo).  Also, Midwestern State and West Texas A&M both improved to 2-2 in LSC play with blowout wins.  

Now, about last week:

Western Oregon wins at home against Eastern New Mexico 49-20

Say what you will about Western Oregon playing a weak conference schedule, they still need to win the games (which they didn’t do much of last season), and win they have to the tune of a 4-0 LSC record.  Despite having the ball for just 22:47 of the game, the Wolves outgained ENMU on the ground and in the air and forces two ENMU turnovers, the first being an Andrew Simpson 35-yard pick-six with 15 seconds left in the first quarter that gave the Wolves a lead they would not give up the rest of the way.  The offensive stars for WOU were Kainoa Jones, who led the Wolves with 153 passing yards and a touchdown to Keyvaun Eady to go along with 94 rushing yards and three touchdowns.  Kainoa Sayre also added two rushing touchdowns and 39 rushing yards.  Ron Craten and Elijah Zeh had 65 and 62 yards and a touchdown each form a Greyhounds offense that held the ball quite a bit but had to work much too hard for what they got. 

Western Oregon improves to 4-2 and Eastern New Mexico falls to 2-4.

Angelo State wins at home against Texas A&M-Kingsville 38-0

If I told you Angelo State would gain just 30 rushing yards without any other statistic, you might think the Rams would have lost this game.  Nope, not by a long shot.  Braeden Fuller had the game of his life, completing 18 of 33 passes for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Angelo State passing game overwhelmed the Javelina defense.  Fuller also added a rushing touchdown to go with his passing success.  A scoring run late in the first quarter fueled by the first of Teague Sedtal’s two interceptions on the day set the Rams to a 14-0 lead and another scoring spurt early in the third quarter put the Rams up 35-0 and Kingsville would be left thinking how a game they thought as winnable got away from them. 

Angelo State improves to 4-2 and Texas A&M-Kingsville falls to 4-2.   

Midwestern State wins at home against Sul Ross State 40-21

Well, at least Sul Ross State showed up and played a full 60 minutes.  Midwestern State came out like Mike Tyson in his prime and knocked out the Lobos out early by scoring the first 27 points of the game.  The Mustang assault would continue into the third quarter with MSU’s second pick-six of the game, a 29-yard return by Karter Houchin that put the Mustangs up 37-7 with 9:31 left in the third quarter.  From that point, MSU called off the horses and cruised to the win.  Andrew Knebel had his best game as MSU quarterback, completing 16 of 25 passes for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Tucker Bridwell and Andrew Martinez combined for 215 passing yards, but Martinez was intercepted 3 times, including two pick-sixes. 

Midwestern State improves to 3-3 and Sul Ross State falls to 1-5.

West Texas A&M wins at home against Western New Mexico 42-14

West Texas A&M switched quarterbacks to Kanon Gibson and Josh Lynn took over play calling duties – what could go wrong?  Well, not much went wrong for the Buffaloes, who got 216 passing yards from Gibson in the first quarter (!) and scored touchdowns on their first three drives of the game.  While a 10-0 second quarter pulled the Mustangs within 21-17 at the half, it was Gibson at it again in the third, leading WT to their second 21-point quarter of the game and the 42-17 lead that would hold the rest of the way.  Gibson completed 19 of 27 passes for 374 yards, 5 touchdowns, and an interception that WNMU couldn’t capitalize on.  Zorian Stanton had his best game of the season, catching 8 balls for 187 yards and two touchdowns.  Tre’Jon Henderson added 105 yards on the ground to lead WT.  Anthony Flores led WNMU with 86 receiving yards on 6 catches and Cole Lalama led WNMU with 11 tackles.  

West Texas A&M improves to 2-4 and Western New Mexico falls to 2-5.

Texas-Permian Basin wins at #7 Central Washington 14-13

In response to the season-ending injury to Dylan Graham, UTPB went ugly to win this one on the road over the favored Wildcats.  The Falcons didn’t dominate time of possession (they held the ball for 27:40 of the game), but they converted many key third downs to extend drives, especially in the fourth quarter, where they ended the game with a 17-play, 71-yard drive that ran the last 8:31 off the clock.  CWU managed 5 plays and 3:07 possession time in the fourth quarter, which along with 4 empty possessions in UTPB territory (two interceptions and two missed field goals) and a missed extra point kick cost the Wildcats the game and possibly much more if their playoff hopes are dashed by this loss.  Kennedy McGill was solid on the ground, gaining 138 yards and scoring two touchdowns, but ugly in the air, completing 5 of 13 passes for 51 yards and an interception.  Issac Mooring’s numbers were similar to McGill’s, passing for 107 yards and an interception, but scored both Falcon touchdowns with two 2-yard runs.  

Texas-Permian Basin improves to 4-3 and Central Washington falls to 4-2.

LSC Standings

Week 7 Preview

We have our first LSC Elimination Game of 2024 in Kingsville, where Central Washington and Texas A&M-Kingsville will face off with their playoff hopes on the line.  Also, Angelo State and Western Oregon look to stay undefeated in LSC play, Western New Mexico and Sul Ross State fight for their first conference win, and let’s not forget the latest edition of the Wagon Wheel Game, where Eastern New Mexico tries to win for the third straight year. 

All games are on Saturday, October 19.  All game times are in the Central time zone.

West Texas A&M at Eastern New Mexico, 1:00 PM

Series History: Eastern New Mexico leads 19-18

Last meeting: 2023 (Eastern New Mexico won 35-27)

Wagon Wheel Game 38. 

Eastern New Mexico tries for their third straight win in the Wagon Wheel Game.  West Texas A&M snapped their four-game losing streak with some offensive changes that contributed to a win over Western New Mexico.  Eastern New Mexico wants to break their own four-game losing streak where the Greyhounds have gotten progressively worse week to week.  Of particular concern for the Greyhounds is their defense, which gives up 35 points per game and 415 yards of offense while forcing just 5 turnovers and committing 11 turnovers.  As much as WT has struggled, their defensive numbers have been slightly better, giving up 29 points a game and 358 yards of offense while forcing 7 turnovers and committing 8 turnovers.  Also, WT has played somewhat more competitive games against tougher opposition than ENMU except for their games with Central Washington, which ENMU lost 44-38 and WT lost 45-3.  The Buffaloes’ big question on offense is whether last week’s success with Kanon Gibson can carry over into this week, or whether it was just success against a lower-tier Western New Mexico squad.  Numbers-wise, ENMU has a better defense than WNMU, but it honestly isn’t by much, so I’m expecting WT to put up some points this week.  I’m also expecting ENMU to have some success on the ground and to keep the game close most of the way, but the ENMU’s glaringly bad defensive numbers have me leaning toward the Buffaloes.  West Texas A&M by a touchdown. 

Western Oregon at Texas-Permian Basin, 6:00 PM

Series History: Texas-Permian Basin leads 2-0

Last meeting: 2023 (Texas-Permian Basin won 28-16)

Western Oregon’s 2024 schedule reminds me quite a bit of the 2022 Texas A&M-Kingsville schedule, where the Javelinas got out to a 7-0 record against the lower-tier teams of the LSC only to lose their last 5 games against mostly the LSC’s best teams.  If you look at Western Oregon’s schedule, their wins have come against Sul Ross State, West Texas A&M (who I’m convinced WOU has put some kind of curse on), and the two New Mexico schools.  The Wolves now have UTPB, Kingsville, Midwestern State, Angelo State, and CWU ahead of them.  Not an easy slate of games to finish the season, but if they win all of them (or maybe get through with one loss?), they might be in the playoff conversation.  But for a program whose best run of success was in the last-1970s and whose last postseason game was a bowl game in 2007, reaching the NCAA playoffs for the first time would truly be unexpected. 

UTPB pulled off an upset win on the road at CWU, winning with defense, late-game possession, and keeping it close and letting the opponent make the big mistakes.  They will need more of that to win against a WOU defense that gives up 24 points a game and 114 rushing yards per game.  However, despite the Falcons’ 4-3 record, they have only given up 18 points a game and forced 9 turnovers.  I think that if UTPB keeps it close (and I expect they will), they’re more likely to win it because even without Dylan Graham, they still have more playmakers on both sides of the ball than WOU.  Texas-Permian basin by a touchdown.  

#15 Central Washington at Texas A&M-Kingsville, 7:00 PM

Series History: Series tied 3-3

Last meeting: 2023 (Central Washington won 21-17)

Both CWU and TAMUK had playoff hopes coming into the 2024 season, with CWU picked to win the LSC at the beginning of the season.  After this game, one almost certainly be watching the playoffs from home while the winner still has postseason hopes, although the winner may still need to win out to have a chance. 

The matchup I am looking at in this game is the TAMUK rushing defense (55 yards per game) against the CWU rushing offense (256 yards per game).  The Javelinas pretty much stopped Angelo State from running the ball, but they “made up for it” by being absolutely terrible against the pass.  So then the big question is whether Kennedy McGill can make plays with his arm if he and Tyler Flanagan have a hard time on the ground.  Also, the CWU defense, while being quite stingy (14 points per game), they have only forced 5 turnovers and have had .  I do think that CWU has a more well-rounded defense than TAMUK, and I think CWU will make (barely) enough plays on offense to pull it out late.  I also don’t see CWU having so many empty possessions like they did last week.  This is going to be a full-on “rock fight” game, and while I am going with CWU, I think the game is pretty much a toss-up.  Central Washington by a field goal. 

Western New Mexico at Sul Ross State, 7:00 PM

Series History: Western New Mexico leads 15-10

Last meeting: 2023 (Western New Mexico won 42-28)

In setting up the weekly LSC picks contest, forum user IronOre calls this game a “Somebody Has to Win Bowl”.  Maybe that’s a valid point given this game is between the teams with the LSC’s worst records.  Sul Ross State has gotten into a habit of falling behind big early in games and having to fight a futile battle to get back into contention.  WNMU has also fallen into that habit for the most part as well.  Record-wise, the Lobos profile very (un)favorably to the two lower-tier RMAC teams WNMU beat (Adams State and New Mexico Highlands), who have a current combined record on 1-11 – teams with moments of strong offense but very weak defense.  Both those games were shootouts, and the one thing Sul Ross State can do (although it hasn’t been terribly consistent) is throw the ball.  Against a WNMU defense that gives up 278 passing yards a game, I think the Lobos can at least have a glimmer of hope on their home field, but their lack of defensive presence will once again cost them.  Western New Mexico by 14 points. 

Angelo State at Midwestern State, 7:00 PM

Series History: Midwestern State leads 16-10

Last meeting: 2023 (Angelo State won 27-12)

ASU is showing that the experience of facing tough opposition in their first two games has led to improvement over the course of the season.  The Rams haven’t given up more than 21 points in a game and have given up a total of 7 points over the past 3 games.  ASU has also given up just 11 points per game in 2024 and forced 14 turnovers.  While MSU has themselves forced 12 turnovers, the Mustangs haven’t excelled against the run or the pass, giving up 188 yards on the ground and 181 yards in the air. 

MSU has found some success in the passing game, most recently with Andrew Knebel, MSU has thrown 8 interceptions in 2024, which is the exact number of interceptions ASU has made in 2024.  The MSU rushing game has been somewhat surprising in that its talented backfield duo of Jalen March and Devin Cross have contributed to a rushing attack that has gained just 136 yards per game, and Angelo State has given up just 105 rushing yards per game.  Angelo State may not have as big a passing game as they had last week, but Braeden Fuller has been efficient and has yet to throw an interception this season.  I expect the ASU running game to be better against the MSU defense, and I am a firm believer in the idea that “defense travels”.  Angelo State by 13 points.