LSC Week 10 Preview

November 7th, 2024 1:00pm

Week 9 Recap

Sometimes it can really be the little things, the things you least expect to go wrong, that end up being the very things that keep you out of the playoffs.  For Central Washington, two missed extra points are the difference between a possible undefeated LSC record and the two LSC losses they currently have.   

In addition to CWU, kicking was a nightmare for Texas A&M-Kingsville, who missed all four of their  attempts in their 7-point loss to West Texas A&M, and Western Oregon missed both of their attempts even though they held off a Midwestern State rally to win a close one. 

Not to be overlooked between all the missed kicks is a surprising win by Sul Ross State over Eastern New Mexico where it was the Lobos who were the stronger team, especially on the ground, in the fourth quarter.   

Now, about last week:

Sul Ross State wins at home against Eastern New Mexico 33-28

Through three quarters, Sul Ross State was keeping somewhat close with Eastern New Mexico but was still down 28-17 with the prospect of having to get multiple stops against the Greyhound ground game, something the Lobos couldn’t do in their first matchup.  It’s been something they really haven’t been able to do all season.  So when the Lobos scored to start the fourth quarter to make the score 28-24, I’m guessing ENMIU wasn’t all that concerned.  Maybe get a long drive or two and they were all set, right? 

That’s not what happened, not at all.  Cooper Hamilton missed a 43-yard field goal on the next ENMU drive and then Carlos Arreola showed ENMU how it was done with his own field goal to narrow the score to 28-27.  ENMU would then take the ball down to the Sul Ross State 39-yard line, where Ta’Bias Jackson stopped Mario Sanchez on a keeper on fourth down and 2, giving the Lobos the ball.  They then took full advantage, taking the lead with 1:44 left in the game on a 21-yard touchdown run by Carson Workman.  The Greyhounds would take nearly all that time to gain just 22 yards before turning the ball over on downs at their 38-yard line with 4 seconds left. 

Sure, ENMU got 376 rushing yards and outgained SRSU 484 to 399 yards and held the ball for 36:34 of the game, but 4 Greyhound drives ended with turnovers on downs, they had one pass intercepted, and they had the field goal miss in the fourth quarter.  6 empty possessions allowed the Lobos to keep it close and eventually gain the advantage over the ENMU defense (SRSU gained 191 rushing yards) despite having a fumble returned for a touchdown.  With this win, I say we find a way to get Sul Ross State to play New Mexico Highlands to see if they can beat all the Division 2 teams in New Mexico!   

Sul Ross State improves to 3-6 and Eastern New Mexico falls to 3-6.

Angelo State wins at home over #11 Central Washington 17-16

Juuuust a bit outside. 

- Bob Uecker, Major League

If this Central Washington team, highly ranked all season, ends up on the outside of the playoff field, they will be looking at this game and the UTPB game knowing these were missed opportunities.  I can certainly focus on missed extra points, since they were the difference in both of CWU’s 1-point conference losses.  Cooper Britton, brought on to kick the extra point from the 8-yard line after Darius Morrison was called for a false start on a potential game-winning 2-point play, missed the extra point kick wide left.  But that missed extra point was the culmination of a series of missed chances and errors by a CWU team that made very few of them in 2023.

Last year Angelo State was the team who made the big mistakes against CWU (who can forget Tanner Volk’s pick-six on a fake field goal try?)  Now this year it was CWU, despite having the advantage in most of the game’s important statistics, making errors at the worst possible times.  Look at what CWU managed to accomplish against ASU:

More first downs (17 to 11)
More rushing yards (237 to 123)
More third down conversions (9 of 16 to 1 of 9 for ASU)
Time of possession (37:21)
Red zone chances (3 to 1 for ASU)

But even with those advantages, CWU wasn’t finishing enough drives.  CWU found themselves down 17-10 at halftime and they just couldn’t get the ASU defense to yield.  The Ram defense – getting more and more tired as the game went on – bent, and bent, and still bent until they finally yielded when Tyler Flanagan scored on a 9-yard run with 34 seconds left in the game to make the score 17-16.  Then it once again went to a very bad place for CWU with the missed extra point. 

Angelo State improves to 7-2 and Central Washington falls to 6-3.

Western Oregon wins at Midwestern State 21-16

Unless you’re the New York Giants, who managed to become the first NFL team to score three touchdowns and not give up any touchdowns and still lose, field goals don’t beat touchdowns.  Joseph Carlson made 3 of 4 field goals (missing from 55 yards), but the Wolves got three touchdowns, and that was enough for the Wolves to hold on for the win. 

The Wolves got out to a quick 14-0 lead I the first quarter on a Damon Hickok touchdown reception and a Jordan McCarty run (both were 1 yard), but Carlson got MSU to within 14-6 at halftime.  A second McCarty touchdown pass of 19 yards to Isaiah Rickard put the Wolves up 21-6 midway through the third quarter, and the Mustangs started to claw their way back into it.  On the Wolves’ next drive, Larry Donnell took a McCarty fumble and returned it 66 yards to get MSU to within 21-13.  MSU would get the ball back and score again on a 45-yard Carlson field goal to pull within 21-16, but that was as close as MSU got.  After the teams traded punts and WOU missed a 46-yard field goal, Andrew Knebel drove the Mustangs to the WOU 18-yard line, where on fourth down and 7, his pass to Demonte Green was broken up by Tyler Copeland and WOU ran the last 52 seconds off the clock. 

This wasn’t quite a masterclass in ugly football, but it was close.  WOU outgained MSU 250 to 231 yards, MSU’s only touchdown was scored by their defense, there were 19 penalties for 207 yards, WOU’s kicker (Emmett Keaton) missed both his field goal tries, and the winning quarterback (McCarty) threw for 85 yards and ran for 70 yards.  MSU’s top running backs gained 2 yards (Jalen March) and zero yards (Devin Cross – he didn’t play).  It was ugly, but it was a beauty for Western Oregon. 

Western Oregon improves to 6-3 and Midwestern State falls to 3-6.

West Texas A&M wins at Texas A&M-Kingsville 21-14

Like CWU in their loss to Angelo State, Texas A&M-Kingsville had their share of missed opportunities.  The combination of Gilberto Garza and Dillon Bredeson missed 3 field goals and had another one blocked.  The Javelinas also had one turnover on downs and a lost fumble.  Not to be outdone, West Texas A&M had four turnovers on downs before their special teams finally broke through with a Jamel Acosta-Lewis recovery of a Tavion Grant muffed punt to tie the game at 7.  Kingsville would answer the next time they had the ball on a Jalen Brown 2-yard touchdown run, but that would be it for the Javelinas. 

In the fourth quarter, the Buffaloes’ offense, which was described by forum user WT_TKW as “(Kanon) Gibson running for his life”, began to move the ball with urgency.  A 59-yard touchdown pass from Gibson to TJ Moore Jr. tied the game at 14, and after the Buffaloes forced a three-and-out on the next Javelina drive, Gibson set up WT with another long pass, a 45-yard completion to Tucker Swoboda to the TAMUK 18-yard line.  4 plays later, Jamaal Joseph scored on a 1-yard run to put the Buffaloes up for good with 3:18 left in the game.  A TAMUK turnover on downs was followed by a missed 35-yard field goal by WT’s Cason Polivoda (kickers were 0-for-5 in this game!).  A Jalen Brown Hail Mary fell short of its goal at the WT 3-yard line as time expired, and the Buffaloes have now won 3 of their last 4 games. 

West Texas A&M improves to 4-5 and Texas A&M-Kingsville falls to 5-4.

Playoff Watch

This week, we get actual rankings and no more alphabetical lists, so let’s have at it:

With two weeks left in the regular season, there is still room for quite a lot of movement among these top ten teams and possibly teams outside of these teams.  Of particular interest to the LSC is the Angelo State at Western Oregon game.  The Rams hold the LSC’s top ranking at number 5, and the Wolves probably need to win out to get in the top 7 since earned access may not be likely.  However, WOU has Central Washington next week, so life is quite difficult for this surprising pack of Wolves.  Also, CWU, on the number 6 line, may possibly drop in ranking because their opponent, Sul Ross State, would hurt their strength of schedule, but that remains to be seen.  Finally, keep an eye on the other games between teams in the rankings, specifically Augustana/Sioux Falls and CSU-Pueblo/Colorado Mines. 

LSC Standings

Week 10 Preview

We are back to a full slate of games in the LSC, with another edition of the top 2 teams in the LSC facing each other this week.   Angelo State, in the top 25 for the first time this season, goes to Western Oregon in what must be close to being the most important game in WOU program history.  Also, it’s busy in New Mexico as Western hosts a reeling Texas A&M-Kingsville squad and Eastern hosts UTPB.  Central Washington, out of the top 25 for the first time this season, tries to hold on to their playoff hopes when they host Sul Ross State, and West Texas A&M looks to get back to 0.500 with a home win in the Highway 287 Rivalry.  

All games are on Saturday, November 9.  All game times are in the Central time zone.

Texas A&M-Kingsville at Western New Mexico, 1:00 PM

Series History: Texas A&M-Kingsville leads 7-1

Last meeting: 2023 (Texas A&M-Kingsville won 30-9)

Texas A&M-Kingsville hits the road looking to get a lead and keep it against a WNMU team that has scored just 18 points a game and given up 35 points a game along with 479 yards a game.   Despite the overall struggles of the Kingsville offense, scoring just 21 points a game, WNMU’s rushing defense (giving up 234 yards per game) could be just the thing for Roger Hagan and the Javelinas.   

Maybe Josh Magana gets some momentum going passing the ball and moves the ball a bit for WNMU against the TAMUK secondary, but the Kingsville defense should be able to hold the Mustangs out of the end zone for most of the game with their stronger defensive front.  The Javelinas should also be able to move the ball on offense, especially on the ground, making life easier for Jalen Brown and the TAMUK passing game.  The Javelinas may have to work a bit to get points on the board, but they shouldn’t have to worry about WNMU keeping it close late.  Texas A&M-Kingsville by 17 points. 

Texas-Permian Basin at Eastern New Mexico, 1:00 PM

Series History: Texas-Permian Basin leads 4-3

Last meeting: 2023 (Texas-Permian Basin won 52-29)

ENMU played a terrible fourth quarter against Sul Ross State, where it seemed the Lobos wore down the Greyhound defense as the fourth quarter went on.  Now, a rested UTPB offense that is more than capable of doing the same thing to ENMU is coming to Portales looking to preserve their winning record.  Also, the UTPB defense has done better than their record might have you believe, giving up 284 yards per game and 18 points per game.  Overall, it’s tough for me to think that a team that gives up over 35 points a game, 215 rushing yards a game, and 412 yards a game is going to keep a UTPB out of the end zone enough to keep it close.  Texas-Permian Basin by 14 points. 

#20 Angelo State at Western Oregon, 3:05 PM

Series History: Angelo State leads 5-0

Last meeting: 2023 (Angelo State won 31-13)

Western Oregon isn’t going to make things easy for their opponents and they’re not going to make things easy for themselves either as seen by their 26/23 scoring split.  This Wolves team has shown a lot of grit and guts in winning games they weren’t able to win last season.  They’ve played cleaner games, and their defense has been able to keep games close.  Angelo State has found their way back into the top 25 for the first time this season by winning all their conference games so far, a 7-game winning streak where their offense, led by quarterback Braeden Fuller, hasn’t necessarily been spectacular but efficient and mostly mistake-free, while their defense has been strong but did a lot of bending but not breaking against CWU last week. 

When comparing the teams, I see WOU as having some trouble with Braeden Fuller and the ASU passing game, possibly leading to some quick ASU scores.  WOU, who really has to work for its points, will need to play keep-away and finish their drives to keep pace with the Rams.  I just don’t see the Wolves as having as strong an offense as CWU last week, and CWU struggled to finish drives despite outgaining ASU.   To me, this is the difference in the game.  Western Oregon will keep it close, but Agenol State gets a late score to put it out of reach.  Angelo State by 10 points. 

Midwestern State at West Texas A&M, 6:00 PM

Series History: West Texas A&M leads 21-15

Last meeting: 2023 (West Texas A&M won 23-0)

Midwestern State is struggling, having lost 5 of their last 6 games while West Texas A&M has won 3 of their last 4 games.  MSU has scored more than 21 points just once in this streak, in their win over Sul Ross State while WT has scored more than 21 points in their three wins but was held to just 7 in their loss to UTPB. 

For WT to win, they will need to succeed on the ground while forcing MSU into passing situations, where the Mustangs have thrown 14 interceptions this season.  MSU has surprisingly struggled on the ground, averaging 123 yards a game, while their passing strategy has basically been to try anyone and everyone and keep in who is doing best and hope it’s enough.  But it hasn’t been enough for MSU most of this season.  I think WT can establish the running game since MSU gives up 189 yards a game on the ground, and that will open things up for the Buffaloes, who will get just enough offense to win.  West Texas A&M by 7 points. 

Sul Ross State at Central Washington, 8:00 PM

Series History: First meeting

Central Washington comes home out of the top 25 for the first time this season after a tough loss to Angelo State looking to right some issues, particularly with finishing drives.  The CWU offense has mostly been fine, especially on the ground, but finishing drives has been an Achilles heel for them.  Kennedy McGill is likely to rush for over 1000 yards this season and possibly lead the team on the ground and in the air.  The offensive and defensive lines have also been solid as well. 

Sul Ross State showed me a lot last week, dominating the fourth quarter and being the team to wear down ENMU’s defense.  The Lobos showed a surprisingly effective ground game last week, with Jordan Morales leading the way and getting more carries as the season has progressed.  Now, the problem for Sul Ross State is whether they can repeat this offensive effort against a much better CWU defense, which allows just 13 points a game and just 234 total yards of offense per game.  Sul Ross State will give it a good effort, the two-quarterback system of Andrew Martinez and Tucker Bridwell will pick up some yards, but there’s a reason the teams the Lobos have beaten are the bottom two teams in the LSC – they still need some work before they can compete with teams like CWU regularly.  Central Washington will establish their running game and Sul Ross State will find out quickly this isn’t ENMU’s defense.  Central Washington by 17 points.