GSC Week 11 Preview & Picks

November 14th, 2024 6:00am

GSC Week 11 Preview & Picks

It’s the final week of the regular season for all but one Gulf South program and a GSC Title is on the line as No. 21 West Florida travels to No. 2 Valdosta State for a shot at the crown. Here’s how each team’s title chances break down as the Gulf South Champion is based on conference win percentage:

 

  • If West Florida wins…

           …would have a .857 win percentage (6-1) and be named champion over Valdosta State, who would have a league win percentage of .833 (5-1).

           …would be West Florida’s first outright title in program history and third title overall (’21, ’22)

 

  • If Valdosta State wins…

           …would be the first undefeated GSC champion since 2019 (VSU).

           …would be the program’s first outright championship since 2019.

           …would be the Blazers’ 11th GSC football title all-time (the record for most titles is held by former GSC member North Alabama – 13).


 

Week 10 Results (home team in bold)

No. 14 West Alabama 31, Shorter 6

Mississippi College 35, Northeastern State 7

Chowan 21, Erskine 3*

No. 2 Valdosta State 49, Delta State 20*

West Florida 35, North Greenville 14*

 

Week 11 Schedule (all times Eastern)
*indicates Gulf South Conference game

 

Delta State (5-4, 2-3 GSC) at Mississippi College (2-7, 1-5 GSC)*
Saturday, Nov. 16 | 1:00 pm | Clinton, Miss. | Audio | Stats | Video

 

The Statesmen have now lost two in a row after last week’s drubbing at the hands of No. 2 Valdosta State after falling behind early. DSU gave up 14 points in the game’s first seven minutes and couldn’t recover despite 239 rushing yards and controlling the time of possession. The Statesmen defense held a potent VSU offense to under 400 yards and collected an interception, but the passing game was an inefficient 13-for-32 through the air and just 5-of-18 on third down conversions.

 

Don’t look now, but the Choctaws might have figured things out as the season winds down. Winners of two straight, Mississippi College has amassed over 400 yards rushing the last two weeks while attempting just one pass as they have deployed freshman Preston Godfrey as the team’s defacto quarterback. Last Saturday, Godfrey ran for 131 yards on 26 carries with a touchdown, while senior running back Marcus Williams carried the ball 28 times for a career-high 189 yards and two scores. The offense is feeling good to the tune of 38.5 points per game during the current win streak, outsourcing the opposition 77-14 during the run.

 

Mississippi College is running wild, albeit against inferior competition, however confidence can be a game changer. Delta State’s defense allows just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but will have their hands full this week with the Choctaws run game. I do think that the DSU defense is more talented than those that MC has faced the last few weeks, so I give a slight edge to the Statesmen in this in-state rivalry match up.

 

My pick: Delta State

 

Chowan (3-6, 2-4 GSC) at North Greenville (4-5, 3-3 GSC)*
Saturday, Nov. 16 | 1:00 pm | Tigerville, S.C. | Stats | Video

 

Chowan picked up its third win of the season last week at home, surviving a “defensive battle” where neither offense had much to show in the way of success. The Hawks and Flyinging Fleet of Erskine combined for just 443 yards of total offense and were both scoreless in the second half of action. Chowan is averaging a lowly 13.7 points and 270 yards of offense per game, while the defense has surrendered an average of 30 points and 361.3 yards per game to the competition. CU is weakest against the run, giving up 192.6 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry, allowing over 200 yards on the ground on six separate occasions this season.

 

The Trailblazers made it through one of the toughest stretches on any schedule across the country, playing three Top 25 opponents in a row and four Top 25 opponents in a five-week span. Despite last week’s road loss to West Florida, NGU still has a chance to finish with its first winning record in Gulf South play since joining the conference seven years ago. Playmakers Dre Williams and Ahmari Coats have been bottled up the last two weeks and will need to break free for the Trailblazers to come out on top, and freshman running back Jacob Walker has a chance to turn in a career day on the ground as he has scored five touchdowns in the team’s last six games.

 

North Greenville is 4-0 all-time against Chowan and I expect that winning streak to extend this week. The Trailblazer offense has a chance to break things wide open early and often in this one if they can get the stars involved from the start.

 

My pick: North Greenville

 

Erskine (1-7, 0-5 GSC) at No. 14 West Alabama (8-1, 4-1 GSC)*
Saturday, Nov. 16 | 2:00 pm | Livingston, Ala. | Audio | Stats | Video

 

Welp, the struggles continue to carry on for Erskine after a 21-3 loss to Chowan last week where the offense had just 181 total yards. The Fleet have just 10 points in their last three contests and are averaging 13.8 points per contest on the year. Redshirt-freshman receiver Rodshaun Dorsey has been the lone bright spot for Erskine, hauling in 36 receptions for 366 yards and five touchdowns, accounting for over ⅓ of the team’s receiving yards and total offensive touchdowns on the year.

 

West Alabama’s win streak is now at three games following a 31-6 non-conference win over Shorter where the defense pitched a second half shutout and surrendered just 242 total yards - 88 in the second half -  to the Hawks. The Tigers scored on their first drive from scrimmage and never looked back as quarterback Spencer Arceneaux threw four touchdowns, including two to Caeleb Bass, and the defense collected nine tackles for loss and five sacks. 

 

UWA is ranked 9th in NCAA Division II scoring defense (12.4 ppg) and 16th in total defense (267.8 ypg), and those numbers should get even better following Saturday’s regular season finale. This will be a lopsided contest from start to finish as West Alabama is primed to cruise into the playoffs.

 

My pick: No. 14 West Alabama

 

No. 21 West Florida (7-2, 5-1 GSC) at No. 2 Valdosta State (9-0, 5-0 GSC)*
Saturday, Nov. 16 | 7:00 pm | Valdosta, Ga. | Audio | Stats | Video

 

The Argos are back in the Top 25 in the midst of a six-game winning streak after a 35-14 victory over North Greenville last weekend at home. West Florida’s offense once again put the team in position to win early, forcing a fumble on the game’s second play that was recovered and returned for a 25-yards for a touchdown less than a minute into action. UWF went on to hold NGU to just 69 total yards, including a -16 rushing yard mark, and are currently ranked as the No. 2 defense (205.9 ypg) and No. 5 rushing defense (70.3 ypg) in all of NCAA Division II.

 

Valdosta State remained unbeaten with a 29-point drubbing of Delta State on the road last Saturday, forcing three turnovers on defense as well as returning a blocked punt for a score. Running back Alfonso Franklin had 107 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 carries, while Rodney Bullard caught three passes for 121 yards and a score of his own on a day when the offense often worked with a short field. The Blazers have outscored the opposition by an average of over 35 points per game as the offense is among the top units in the country with 44 points and 473.2 yards per game.

 

This is it, a matchup of strengths as the UWF defense looks to slow down the VSU offense and the VSU offense faces its toughest test of the season on the other side of the ball. I do think that the Blazers have a stronger offense than that of West Florida, and if turnovers can be avoided, Valdosta State should hoist the League trophy in front of its home crowd in prime time.

 

My pick: No. 2 Valdosta State