GSC Regular Season Finale and Playoff Preview & Picks

November 20th, 2024 6:00am

GSC Regular Season Finale and Playoff Preview & Picks

The regular season ended a week ago for most programs across the country, however the Gulf South still has one team closing out the 2024 campaign as North Greenville ends the year with a tilt against Shorter in a rescheduled contest from a Hurricane Helene postponement. On another note, the postseason also begins this weekend as West Alabama earned the No. 3 seed in Super Region 2 and earned the right to host Lenoir-Rhyne in a First Round matchup.

 

Week 11 Results (home team in bold)

Delta State 20, Mississippi College 14*

North Greenville 31, Chowan 27*

No. 14 West Alabama 63, Erskine 0*

No. 2 Valdosta State 28, No. 21 West Florida 7*

 

Final Regular Season Schedule (all times Eastern)

 

Shorter (3-6) at North Greenville (5-5)
Friday, Nov. 22 | 6:00 pm | Tigerville, S.C. | Stats | Video

 

After winning its first two games of the season, Shorter has now lost six of its last seven games, including a 44-28 loss to Kentucky State last Thursday on the road. The Hawks held a two-point lead entering the fourth quarter of play, but KSU scored 18 unanswered points across the final 15 minutes to claim the comeback victory. Shorter surrendered 359 rushing yards in the loss and the defensive unit has struggled all year to the tune of allowing 30.1 points per game. Shorter doesn’t turn the ball over often - just six total giveaways in nine games - but a third down conversion percentage of 30.25% has kept the Hawks’ defenders on the field more often than not.

 

Following a 31-27 win last week over Chowan, North Greenville has the chance to finish with a record above .500 for the first time since the 2016 season. The NGU pass game struggled last week without starting quarterback Dylan Ramirez, but running backs Reggion Bennet and Naahziekial Mays combined for 122 yards on just 15 carries with three total touchdowns. Special teams and defense kept North Greenville on top a week ago as the defensive unit gave up just 310 total yards and forced two turnovers, while Kendrick Clark returned a third-quarter punt 45 yards for a score. 

 

If the Trailblazers come into the game at full strength - and that’s a big IF with all the injury issues the team has battled through this year - they should run away in this one with ease. The score might get a little closer if NGU has any more stars on the sideline, but their depth should still lead to a victory in Younts Stadium over their future Conference Carolinas foe.

 

My pick: North Greenville

 

*Note: This game is unofficially being dubbed the Hurricane Helene Relief Bowl, as both programs are using their unique platforms to help communities in Western North Carolina  that were greatly affected by Hurricane Helene in late September. Admission to the game will be free but those who attend are encouraged to donate toys and or children's clothing upon entry to Younts Stadium at the provided bins in and around the stadium.

 

Division II Playoffs Schedule (all times Eastern)

 

Lenoir-Rhyne (9-2, 7-2 SAC) at No. 13 West Alabama (9-1, 5-1 GSC)
Saturday, Nov. 23 | 2:00 pm | Livingston, Ala. | Stats | Video

 

By The Numbers

 

The Bears enter the playoffs unseeded in Super Region 2 after ending the regular season with five wins across their last six games. Lenoir-Rhyne’s offense is a far cry from what is has been in years past, ranking 60th in total offense (360.9 ypg) and 70th in scoring offense (26.5 ppg), but the passing game is one of the strongest in NCAA Division II with 238.3 air yards per game. The defense has kept LR relevant for much of the season, ranking 23rd in total defense (278.7 ypg), 25th in scoring defense (16.8 ppg) and holding opponents to just 106.3 yards per game on the ground.

 

West Alabama is the third overall seed in Super Region 2 riding a four-game win streak in which the defense has allowed just 20 total points over the last four weeks. The Tigers are 15th in the nation in total defense (253.2 ypg), 3rd overall in Third Down Conversion Defense (25%) and have held opponents to just 11.2 points per game, the 7th best mark in NCAA Division II. UWA’s offense has had its ups and down, ranking 59th in total offense (364.4 ypg) and 37th in scoring offense (31 ppg), but controls the game clock with a rushing attack that accumulates 186.1 yards per contest.

 

Players to Watch

 

Offensively, the Bears are led by quarterback Jalen Ferguson who has completed 63.1% of his pass attempts for 2,613 yards with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Three different Bears have totaled over 35 catches, with Adonis McDaniel leading the charge catching 41 passes for 663 yards and two touchdowns. On defense, keep an eye on linebacker Jaelin Willis who has 67 total tackles, 10 tackles for loss, two sacks and two interceptions as well as defensive back Christian Santana who has just 35 total tackles, but is second on the team with 10 tackles for loss, two sacks and an interception of his own. 

 

West Alabama’s offense goes through running back Bry Webb who has 475 rushing yards and five touchdowns on just 113 carries. Quarterback Spencer Arceneaux is also a steadying presence, accumulating 270 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, while passing for 1,687 yards and 17 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. Lineman Trevon Lambert is the leader of a defensive unit that has totaled 89 tackles for loss and 32 sacks, as the grad student has recorded 26 total tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks and two forced fumbles. Fellow lineman Davonta Jackson has 31 total tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks, while defensive backs Issac Williams and Lamar Gray have three interceptions apiece. West Alabama kicker Elijah Guyton is almost automatic, converting 15-of-17 attempts (88.2%) on the season.

 

The Breakdown

 

Lenoir-Rhyne may have a chance to keep it close since they don’t turn the ball over all that often, however, West Alabama doesn’t need to force turnovers to establish its dominance on defense. A long trip and a time change won’t bode well for the Bears as I expect West Alabama to jump out to an early lead, giving the defense ample opportunity to get into the backfield and put pressure on the Bear’s passing attack that thrives on big plays down field. LR isn’t equipped to put up points in a hurry, and when the Tigers get a lead, they rarely give it up. Give me West Alabama to advance to the next round and move their overall record against Lenoir-Rhyne to a perfect 3-0 mark.

 

My pick: No. 13 West Alabama