August 28th, 2001 12:00am
At this time of the year every team is a potential champion. Emotions and hopes run high that this will be the year your favorite team makes it to the D2 national title game.
But the beauty contests are over. Soon it will be time for reality - the opening of the 2001 NCAA Division II football season. Occasionally a new team pops its way into national prominence. Delta State did it in grand style last season by winning the D2 title, but for the most part this season's list of potential playoff participants is not much different than it has been for years.
Last year at this time the D2football.com national poll looked like this:
1. Northwest Missouri St.
2. North Dakota St.
3. Carson-Newman
4. Catawba
5. Slippery Rock
6. Indiana (PA)
7. Pittsburg State
8. California Davis
9. Northeastern Oklahoma State
10. Central Oklahoma
11. Southern Arkansas
12. South Dakota State
13. Texas A&M-Kingsville
14. Shepherd
15. Northwood
16. Fort Valley State
By November 6, 2001 the poll looked like this:
1. Northwest Missouri (10-0)
2. UC-Davis (9-0)
3. Catawba (9-0)
4. West Georgia (10-0)
5. Nebraska-Omaha (9-1)
6. North Dakota State (9-1)
7. Valdosta State (9-1)
8. Slippery Rock (8-2)
9. Northeastern State (8-1)
10. Northwood (8-1)
11. North Dakota (8-2)
12. Delta State (9-1)
13. Carson Newman (8-2)
14. Bloomsburg (8-2)
15. Pittsburg State (8-2)
16. Western Washington (7-2)
D2football.com's preseason poll last season was not much different than other preseason publication guesses or the AFCA poll. Most preseason polls tend to resemble the final standings from the year before. This year's beauty contests fall squarely into this resemblance category.
One of the top perennial favorites to win it all is UC Davis. And for good reason.
Every season the team shows up sporting a long list of returnees - talented returnees - that could take the team to the national title. And so it is again this year. But each year lately the team has slipped at various spots during the playoffs and ended up watching the title game on TV.
The Davis Aggies this season have a chance to put themselves in the record books. With a winning season the Aggies will set the mark for the most consecutive winning seasons (32) eclipsing the mark set years ago by West Chester. Barring a disaster, you probably can write the Aggies into the record books now. The real question is if can they put themselves into the game programs that really count - the ones sold at the title game in Florence in December?
Davis is ranked in the top five in every 2001 preseason poll and is number one in two of them. The primary reason is the return of senior quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan, who finished third in last year's balloting for the Harlon Hill Trophy.
Sullivan will lead an offensive unit that returns eight players that started at least some of the Aggies' games during the 2000 season. The defensive unit has seven returning starters who have to ask themselves how they allowed Bloomsburg to score 29 fourth-quarter unanswered points to throw away a trip to the title game.
It's likely that the Aggies will find their way at least into one of the 16 playoff spots - likely but not guaranteed. Three games will determine the Aggies' fate - September 22 at home against Western Oregon, November 3 at home against Central Washington and November 10 hosting Western Washington.
An old clich� says that defense wins. If so, then the Bloomsburg Huskies are in for another good year. Sporting what arguably may be the best linebacking group in the country, the Huskies will have another successful season. The question is whether it can be as successful as last fall.
Although some critical spots are being filled by returning veterans, two key slots were vacated by graduation. The loss of quarterback Eric Miller and Bloom's leading receiver, Mike Lelko, leave gaping holes in the Bloom lineup. Running back Marques Glaze returns to lead the ground game, but he will not alone run Bloom into the D2 tournament. How successful Chris Thompson is at quarterback will be a major factor as will Tierell Johnson who Bloom hopes will fill the void created by Lelko's graduation. Exiting its own conference this season will be a major challenge. Bloom's regular season finale at home against Slippery Rock again could take on enormous playoff significance. A mid-season visit to IUP also will have a huge bearing on where the Huskies spend Thanksgiving.
Defending D2 champ, Delta State, will be tough again, but it is no shoe in for another trip to Florence. Topping the list of returning vets is quarterback Josh Bright who last season impressed everyone that saw him. Delta State's schedule is accommodating, which in part is why we suspect DSU will make it to the playoffs with relative ease, but not before having to fend off at least two challengers from its own conference.
Once again North Dakota State heads into the season loaded with talent, but in the last few years that talent has not been enough to take it to Florence. The return of seven offensive starters including Harlon Hill candidate running back Lamar Gordon make the Bison a good threat to score from any place on the field.
But the Bison need someone to fill the QB slot following Ryan Johnson's graduation A solid replacement for Johnson is critical for the Bison to do well this fall. And as all Bison fans can tell you, doing well from an NDSU perspective is not merely a winning season or making it to the playoffs. In my eyes, the key to NDSU's season is how well its quarterbacking duties are handled. The Bison have two good potential replacements for Johnson.
Each of the last several years the Bison have found a way to turn a promising season into a disappointment. The biggest one might have been last season. It started with the griping about where the semifinal game would be played. Perhaps this diversion contributed to the loss to Delta State, but it should not have. The fact is the Bison blew this game and again fell short of accomplishing what appeared to be achievable.
On paper the Bison appear to have what it will take to go deep in the playoffs and perhaps make a visit to Florence, but it's premature for Bison fans to book hotel rooms in the Florence area. Anyone who does should make sure the deposit is refundable.
For Northwest Missouri the list of graduation losses is staggering. Gaping holes at critical positions must be filled with underclassmen that the Bearcats hope can step in and produce quickly. Although there are good reasons to think that if anyone can patch the holes in the Bearcats' lineup it is head coach Mel Tjeerdsma, but he will need a huge effort to get enough done this year to take the Bearcats deep into the playoffs. Nonetheless, other than Pitt State, there is not much to stop them in their own conference. It will not take long to find out about this year's Bearcats. They open on the road against Nebraska-Omaha on August 30.
Speaking of Pittsburg State, it too should have an interesting season but one that falls short of title contention. It likely will have its fate resting in the hands of its new quarterback, Neal Philpot. The opening to the renovated "Pitt" will offer fans a new perspective on PSU football. The new seats will not win games, but they might help cushion the impact of losses.
Jeff Harlin's preview of the Midwest is an excellent look at the region that I cannot dispute in any regard. Although he picked NDSU to top the region and Pitt state to top the MIAA, he has a number of disclaimers in the review that are on target.
So far I have been tap dancing around picking a specific number one team - the team that wins it all this December. There is a good reason. I have no real clue.
It would be nice for the top 16 teams listed in all the preseason polls to redo their schedules and play their games against each other so we could get a good view of who is capable of what this fall. The reality is that the preseason polls are fairly good. But there is no giant towering over D2 football able to claim lordship and make that claim stick. A lot of what happens will depend upon some things going very right for certain teams.
Quarterback vacancies at North Dakota State, Northwest Missouri and Bloomsburg make their fates questionable. While the signal calling may be firmly in hand for UC Davis, Delta State, and Valdosta State, other issues make their fates in doubt at this time of the year.
The imponderables this fall include whether the Carson-Newman Eagles' fall from their perch on the playoff brackets was a one-year event only. Can IUP, with a healthy quarterback and a long list of returning veterans, better its 1999 effort that took many of this fall's players to the semifinal game? Can Northwood exit the GLIAC and make its second straight trip to the tournament? To do so it needs to get beyond Grand Valley, which closed out the 2000 season with a six-game winning streak and has most of its team coming back for this season. The Grand Valley hurdle right now looks very tall.
And then there are the true wildcards. Clarion in the Northeast fits this category. Although Bloomsburg and IUP are the top contenders, Clarion showed enormous improvements last year and has an even more seasoned squad returning this fall. Clarion will surprise no one this fall.
Delta State and Valdosta State may dominate the South but West Georgia, Carson-Newman or Catawba could emerge as the region leader. In the West, Northeastern State could challenge Davis. Chadron State is listed in many preseason polls, but we doubt it will play a significant role nationally.
Within the top contenders, in no particular order, here's the "musts" we see as being the critical issues for each.
UC Davis - The Aggies have to play to their potential every game and must avoid the periodic lapses that have afflicted the team each of the last few years.
Western Washington - It must find a way to beat the Aggies
North Dakota State - The Bison must take the heat off Gordon, avoid mental errors that have plagued the team in the prior two seasons and play to their potential, which if achieved is more than enough to get it to Florence.
Pittsburg State - The Gorillas must find a way to use Lateef Walker effectively.
Grand Valley State - The Lakers' big task is to remember to bring a defensive unit to games, don't lose to teams it should crush and get by Northwood.
Northwest Missouri - The Cats must find a way to get a young team to jell quickly or they risk being out of the race before it really gets going.
IUP - Must get a more productive season from its quarterback slot and avoid major injuries.
Delta State - Must be successful plugging graduation-created holes and protect Josh Bright at all cost.
Valdosta State - Must find a defense somewhere so that it does not have to rely upon Bonner throwing constantly.
What this all seems to narrow down to is a season in which you can throw a blanket over about ten teams, any two of which could make it to Florence. Although it is difficult to arrive at a clear-cut D2 title winner, the season sets up to be one of the more fan-friendly in many years.
By the way, the listing of "musts" for some contending teams was less than a quick, random listing.
The list has nine teams in it. This was not an accident. Eight of these teams can make it to their regional finals - eight teams not nine. So why did we list nine instead of the favored eight? It's the Midwest region. NDSU was the easy pick. The toss up was Northwest and Pitt State. My head tells me Pitt State is the pick here, but my heart says the Cats will find a way to be in the mix after Thanksgiving.
The unknowns associated with many of the top contenders suggests this season again could find two surprise teams playing for the title. No one last season would have guessed Bloomsburg would beat Davis and move on to play Delta for the title. Likewise, no one as late as a week or two before the playoffs started figured Delta State as a team that could be in Florence let along able to win the title.
This certainly should not suggest to anyone that either Bloom or Delta did not deserve to play for the title. It does, however, suggest you should never rely too heavily on the consensus-favored teams meeting for the championship. This December again could find two "surprise" teams squaring off for the D2 title trophy - in fact, from this perspective it appears likely at least one if not both teams playing in Braly Stadium in December will come from the ranks of the relatively unexpected (note the word "relatively". There will be no miracles).
You can bet the D2 message board and chat room will be full of heated debate over the regional rankings once the committees begin releasing them following the third game of the season. Many informal polls including D2Football.com's media poll will start following the first week's games. They, too, will be a strong source of weekly confrontation between fans.
Speaking of polls, can anyone explain why the NCAA ceded its rights to do a national poll to the American Football Coaches Association? The organization's poll has no bearing on anything official, and it tends to confuse things. The only polls that count are those coming from the official regional committees.
And then there is the oddity in the way the semifinal seedings are done. The old system seemed to work well so why did the NCAA choose to mess with success?
One gripe this season is a carryover from 2000 and to some extent even 1999. It is Tuskegee. Are these guys a D2 team or are they in a world of their own?
Some preseason polls listed Tuskegee within the top ten, and maybe it deserves to be there - if it would decide to really be part of the Division. Or is money a bigger motive for the school than allowing its athletes to compete for something money can't buy?
Come on guys. How about forgetting about that great bowl game of yours and allow your players to show everyone how well they can play - if they can. Either be a D2 team or leave. Don't hang around suggesting late in the year that you should be included in the national rankings despite having scheduled a game within your own league during the time the tournament is being played. Don't tell anyone early in November you will be willing to cancel your last regular season game if you are included in the playoffs. In or out - pick one. You are more than welcome to be part of D2. How about proving you deserve to be part of it?
Another bit of intrigue for this season will be the winner of the 2001 Harlon Hill award. The fact that three top candidates from 2000 are returning this fall adds to the intrigue.
Although it is certainly debatable, we suspect the odds-on favorite for the award is Valdosta's quarterback, Dusty Bonner, the winner of the Harlon Hill Award last year. Our personal favorite, however, is Lamar Gordon at North Dakota State.
Bonner will be able to put up major stats, which unfortunately is what seems to intrigue most Hill voters. We like to consider competition when looking at stats. Week-to-week Gordon faces people whose sole purpose is to stop him and him alone. Nonetheless he has generated strong running stats. Hopefully this fall Hill voters recognize the degree of effort Gordon has to make relative to other Hill hopefuls and, in essence, give him an extra boost in their deliberations for that effort. Of all the running back-type candidates for the Hill trophy, we find no one that can match Gordon.
One fault we always have found with the Harlon Hill Award and other similar awards is the tendency to favor offensive players over defenders. Only one defensive player, Ronald McKinnon a linebacker for North Alabama, won the award in 1995. It is probably natural for this bias to exist, but it suggests that offensive players are better athletes than defensive guys. This argument is tough to swallow. Defensive players' skills and abilities are different than those of their offensive counterparts, but in no way should they be considered to be lesser athletes.
If you measure a player's worth in terms of his draft potential (a notion we do not agree with) then defensive players should be ranked above the folks on offense. Many more D2 defensive players make it to the NFL and stick than offensive players. What's that old line about defense wins championships? Anyone voting on the Hill award ever hear that line?
If defensive players are kept on the same plane as offensive players, the 2001 candidate crop will be crowded. But reality being what it is, once again someone running, catching or throwing the ball likely will win the award. Credible sources, however, have suggested that this year might be a banner period for many D2 O and D linemen to make it to the NFL - regardless of whether the Harlon Hill voters consider them or not.
Although it certainly is too early to tell what D2 games will carry the most significance, the 2001 D2 schedule does have some games you probably could dub as being critical already. Listed in chronological order, here's the list that looks most interesting now.
Home teams are listed first
August 25
Valdosta State v. Albany State University
Winston-Salem v. Carson-Newman (if they can find a place to play the game)
August 30
East Stroudsburg v. Clarion (first test to see if Clarion is for real)
North Dakota State v. Angelo State (interesting cross section test for both teams) Nebraska-Omaha v. Northwest Missouri (does this one really need an explanation?)
August 31
Central Washington v. North Dakota
September 1
South Dakota State v. Ferris State (If Ferris needs to show something in this game)
Fort Valley v. Valdosta State (should be an interesting test to see what FVS has)
September 8
Grand Valley v. Saginaw Valley (we'll see where the two potential contenders stand)
September 15
Northwood v. Grand Valley (maybe the conference's biggest game of the season) New Haven v. Indiana (IUP needs to show its merits they want to go far in playoffs )
September 22
North Dakota v. New Haven (another interesting test of what the Sioux have to offer) Ashland v. Grand Valley (could be Ashland's only shot to challenge for the GLIAC) Central Arkansas v. Valdosta State (not a game Valdosta should take lightly)
September 29
Clarion v. Kutztown (both teams likely will need a win to continue any playoff hopes) Ferris State v.Northwood (one of the games that could determine the GLIAC outcome)
October 6 (The BIG week in D2)
Indiana v. Bloomsburg (could be for the PSAC and a playoff spot)
Ferris State v. Grand Valley (another key GLIAC matchup)
Delta State v. Valdosta State (if you need an explanation you are not a D2 fan)
North Dakota v. North Dakota State (NDSU must win - and might not)
Carson-Newman v. Presbyterian (one of many CNC must win to reclaim its SAC lead)
October 13
East Stroudsburg v. Bloomsburg (critical for both teams' chances for the tournament) Northwood v. Saginaw Valley (a must win if Saginaw is in the hunt for the GLIAC title)
Pittsburg State v. Northwest Missouri (helmets should be passed out at the gate)
October 20
North Dakota State v. South Dakota State (another potential stumbling block for NDSU)
October 27
Clarion v. Indiana (probably for the PSAC West title and a playoff spot)
Central Missouri v. Northwest Missouri (tough for Northwest after PSU the week before) Carson-Newman v. Catawba (could be the SAC title game)
November 3
Bloomsburg v.Kutztown (PSAC east winner likely comes from this game)
North Dakota State v. Nebraska-Omaha (NDSU can not stumble here)
California-Davis v. Central Washington (a home game the Aggies cannot lose)
November 10
Valldosta State v. West Georgia (could decide Gulf South Conference)
California-Davis v. Western Washington (another one just like the week before) Northwest Missouri v. Emporia State (NWMSU can't lose and expect to make playoffs)
Several years ago the Davis Aggies had the distinction of having the worst schedule in D2 from a perspective of total miles traveled to games. This year that honor clearly sits with New Haven. The Chargers will chock up nearly 14,000 miles to play a grueling ten-game schedule. About the only saving grace to this season's slate of games is that the Chargers have four home games. Last season they played at home only three times. A home game September 15 against IUP could determine New Haven's playoff fate almost regardless of how it does in its other contests.
Now with all that said, let the games and the acrimonious debate begin.