October 17th, 2000 12:00am
With four weeks remaining in the regular D-II season the playoff picture is beginning to take shape but less quickly than you might think this far into the season.
Barring a major disaster, Northwest Missouri has its playoff spot locked up.
Although it still must face its most formidable challenger in its region, UC Davis seems to have a spot reserved also. But after these two teams nearly everyone else has something that could derail postseason hopes.
Take Catawba, for example. If Catawba next weekend loses to Carson-Newman, its number-one South Region ranking certainly is lost, and depending upon outcomes of other games, it is not inconceivable Catawba could be locked out of the tournament. A win over Carson-Newman could put the Eagles' position seriously in doubt.
Chadron State still has to get beyond Fort Hays State the final week of the season to assure its spot in the tournament.
There are many others that also have risk that their current rankings may not hold and that playoff spots for them could disappear, but there are several that have more than a little jeopardy left on their schedules.
Take North Dakota State for example.
Nearly everyone has conceded that the Bison have the talent to win their conference title and command a premium spot in the playoffs, but still ahead are games with Nebraska-Omaha (this weekend), which is fighting for its own spot, and a November 4 game against Northern Colorado.
Can and should the Bison win these two games? Sure, but they are not in the bag by any means. The Nebraska-Omaha game is particularly interesting since UNO has Pitt State breathing down its throat. A UNO loss to the Bison and the probability that Pitt State will win its remaining four games means this weekend probably puts UNO's entire season on the line. It also still has to play South Dakota State and North Dakota. The one-and done prospect for UNO suggests for all intents and purposes the playoffs begin this weekend.
Although they have been on a roll, Bloomsburg's season narrows down to two games, next weekend against Millersville and its final game against Slippery Rock. Bloom can ill-afford a loss and expect to make it to the tournament.
Millersville is in somewhat the same spot and maybe worse. After what should be an easy game this weekend the Mauraders face Bloomsburg, Slippery Rock and IUP in consecutive weeks to close out the season. A loss of any of these games at least jeopardizes its number-one ranking in the region and could kick it out of the tournament, particularly if it loses to Bloomsburg.
IUP would seem to have the schedule advantage since it only faces one top-ranked team the remainder of this season. But, perhaps it biggest opponent will be its medical staff. The loss of its starting tailback, Aamir Dew, to a possible season-ending injury, a hamstring pull for its go-to receiver, Carmelo Ocasio, and walking wounded throughout its lines could make its final four games much more challenging than they appear to be.
Northwood also has a medical issue darkening its playoff hopes as well as four challenging games before the season is done. Northwood's starting quarterback Sleepie Tollie was injured in last week's win over Saginaw. Backup Jason Martin performed well in a relief roll, but the key question is whether he can successfully pilot the Timberwolves through the rest of the season without a loss. Any Northwood loss would open the door for either Bloomsburg or New Haven to take its spot.
With the regular season end in sight there are some interesting questions that come to mind considering the rankings as they are now and the potential for upheaval in the next few weeks.
One issue is whether Northwest Missouri will have one bad game to taint its record and maybe alter its chances to host all the way through the playoff including the semifinals. Never say never may seem to be a conservative approach to this issue, but we think it is virtually impossible for the Bearcats to have a bad enough game to lose any remaining regular season contest.
Then there is North Dakota State whose history in recent years has to been to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so to speak. It has not had a penalty and mistake infested game this year that in prior years derailed its tournament hopes. Is there one out there somewhere?
Was it more than merely coincidence that Carson-Newman pummeled Tusculum College last week after suffering a loss the week before? We don't think so. It seems to us that Carson-Newman was sending a message to anyone who cared to listen.
UC Davis sent a loud message last week to the rest of Division II with its clobbering of I-AA Southern Utah. Quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan's career-high 439 yards and five touchdown passes. Cal-Poly is next up for the Aggies, but this is the Cal-Poly team that suffered a 42-13 loss to Southern Utah. Davis has come close in recent years to being in the D-II title game but fell short each time. The way it is playing now it seems to be saying it is the biggest rock in Northwest Missouri's path to a three-peat.
Speaking of rocks, there is the Rock - Slippery Rock that is. It, too, has some challenges that include Millersville and Bloomsburg. Oddly, however, as intense as its rivalry with IUP is, the Rock may be helpful to IUP.
If IUP can struggle through its next three games with wins, it will face Millersville in the season finale. The week before Millersville will play the Rock. Win or lose the game will be a physical affair since both teams will be vying for playoffs slots. IUP needs a string of four wins to take the number one slot in the regional playoffs and potentially grab two tournament home games.
Shippensburg was the victim of a fierce fight with the Rock and lost its quarterback in the process. This helped IUP handle Shippensburg much more easily than might have been the case otherwise.
How well Millersville survives the Rock game physically and emotionally could have a lot to do with its performance against IUP.
And then there was the question of whether West Liberty State could keep its challenge of Shepherd for the West Virginia Conference title alive by defeating West Virginia Wesleyan?
With a lot of help from Shepherd's loss, West Liberty not only kept its challenge alive, it became the West Virginia Conference top dog, at least until it faces Shepherd November 4. A win then and West Liberty has a shot, although only an outside one, at its first D-II playoff slot ever.
There has been a lot of chatter this week about Morningside's decision to move to D-III. Those against the decision felt Morningside may have made the decision prematurely and could regret it.
We can't comment on this point, but there is one aspect of the decision that strikes us very favorably.
Morningside, we trust, did an analysis of its posture within the North Central Conference (usually the doormat of the league) and had a choice to make. It could ramp up its program to become competitive, whine about how all the bigger schools out-gunned monetarily, or it move to a lower level which it could support and therefore be competitive.
Morningside, of course, chose the third alternative, a decision we applaud.
Whether ultimately this is the right decision or not is irrelevant. Morningside did not try to drag its NCC brethren down to its under-funded level. It did not try to "level the playing field" by trying to take away from anyone else. It instead moved on a path more in line with its own practicalities without harming anyone else.
D-II as a unit has been and continues to be faced with the prospect of reducing scholarships from the current 36. Some conferences already have gone to a lower maximum for its members.
We see D-II doing what we applaud Morningside for not doing. It did not ask anyone to give up anything so it could be in a better position. Why should D-II do it? We can find no reason.
But for every Morningside decision there are many more potentially that would try to degrade the level of play in order to make themselves look competitive. To us that's selfish, a sign of weakness and downright lazy.
Morningside faced a difficult decision in stepping down from the NCC where it has been a long-standing member. Maybe in a few years even those who made it will view the decision as a mistake. But the point stands that Morningside did the right thing in not asking anyone to do for it what it did not want to do for itself.
Are there others who should follow Morningside?
Consider that at least one "D-II" school we know does not yet have its football media guide ready and a year ago made its men's basketball media guide ready by the end of February, right before its regular season was about to end.
Although the tardiness of a media guide is a small issue, if you can't put something this basic together in a time frame to be useful, what does it say about a school's attitude toward its athletic program overall?
There are many Morningsides masquerading in D-II clothing. At least Morningside did not try to shift its responsibility to others. It instead did the "right thing" without trying to cling onto something it could not