November 21st, 2024 7:00am
This weekend is the start of the NCAA Division II playoffs and for the second year in a row, the GAC has put two teams in the field. Ouachita Baptist and Harding both earned at-large spots and will be on the road this weekend to kick off the postseason.
The Tigers will travel over to Oklahoma to take on Central Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the Bisons will travel to Kansas to take on Pittsburg State. It’s the top two teams in the GAC taking on the top two teams in the MIAA, and while this isn’t about conference superiority, you know the GAC would love nothing more than to win best the MIAA on the field.
Let’s dig into these matchups, viewing things through the GAC lens.
No. 11 Ouachita Baptist (10-1) at No. 7 Central Oklahoma (10-1)- 1 p.m., Saturday
The Tigers could’ve been watching from home this week in two scenarios. The first is where the Tigers don’t lose to Southern Nazarene, go undefeated, and earn the top seed in the region. The second is where the loss to Southern Nazarene snowballs, the Tigers drop another one and get eliminated from playoff consideration entirely. Instead of those, the Tigers entered door No. 3, rallying after the loss to SNU and finishing the year as GAC co-champs. Give credit to Ouachita. They didn’t fold when they had every chance to, particularly with injuries plaguing the quarterback room as well.
This is a fascinating matchup because I think it serves both teams well. The Tigers have a great defense and a so-so offense while the Bronchos have a so-so defense and a great offense. So I think this should be a pretty balanced game and definitely helps the Tigers immensely. There would be a ton of pressure on the Ouachita defense if UCO also had a great defense, as keeping the Bronchos off the board would be paramount to the Tigers’ chances. Now, the Tigers still have to keep the Bronchos’ offense in check, but their offense should be able to move the ball a bit.
Let’s look at the numbers. The Bronchos average 48 points and 547 yards (209 rushing, 338 passing) per game. They also average an MIAA-high 7.2 yards per play. Ouachita allows less than 10 points per game along with 253 yards (91 rushing, 162 passing) per game. So you can see this is the good-on-good matchup within the game. Now, we’re under no false assumptions that the offenses in each league are of the same caliber. They’re not. That’s not MIAA bias or GAC badmouthing. It’s an objective fact. But the Tigers are an exceptionally veteran unit that has been very consistent all year. Just three opponents rushed for at least 100 yards, four passed for more than 200 and no one scored more than 20 points on the Tigers this year, and that included some very capable passing offenses in Southern Arkansas and Henderson State. Meanwhile the Bronchos had two games under 100 yards rushing, one game with less than 200 yards passing and just two games under 30 points scored. It’s a prolific offense at every level. I’m very intrigued to see how this matchup plays out. I think the Tigers have the personnel to hold the Bronchos down, but to what degree, I’m not sure.
On the other side, the Bronchos give up a lot. They’re allowing nearly 30 points per game, 310 yards through the air and 450 total yards per game. The run defense has been pretty good this year, allowing just 140 yards per game. The Tigers are a run-oriented team, averaging nearly 200 yards per game this year, but they have playmakers at wide receiver in Carter McElhaney and Bo Baker who can take the top off a defense if needed. Not having Connor Flannigan for this one is awful, as the senior would’ve been dynamic in this matchup. Eli Livingston played well at quarterback for the Tigers against Henderson State, but he’ll need to play even better for the Tigers to keep playing. A big positive for Ouachita is that running back Kendal Givens finished the year with three straight 100-yard rushing performances after totaling just one the previous eight weeks. That’s good news for a team that needs to control the clock and wear the Bronchos defense down. I think Livingston’s rushing ability is also going to be a big factor in this one.
I really do like this matchup for Ouachita. I think it’s a much better one than if they were playing Pitt State because I think they can move the ball and put up enough points to win. I’m not sure if that would’ve been the case against the Gorillas. However, I also think UCO’s offense is better than any the Tigers have faced so far this year and because of that, I don’t think the Tigers will be able to quite keep pace. Bronchos advance in a close one.
Central Oklahoma 31, Ouachita Baptist 27
No. 5 Harding at No. 8 Pittsburg State- 1 p.m., Saturday
The Bisons will be on the road for their title defense, a path completely different from the one they walked last season as the top seed. That said, three yards and a cloud of dust plus the nation’s top defense tends to travel just fine. The Bisons have been really, really good this year, although not perfect, as the loss in October at Ouachita Baptist illustrated. But the Gorillas of Pitt State are no pushovers. They took down Super Region Three top seed Ferris State in the season opener and are the only team who managed to beat UCO this year. And they’re at home in The Jungle. This should be good.
Here’s the deal about the Bisons. Yes, the flexbone is quite the dilemma to solve, but the Harding defense is the bigger issue for opponents. It’s talented, relentless, suffocating, insert adjective here. You look across the various statistical categories and you’re going to see the Bisons at or near the top of list. The Bisons allow 180 yards per game, 3.4 yards per play, 8.6 points per game and have allowed the fewest first downs in the nation. That’s impressive stuff no matter who the opponents are. Does Pitt State have the horses to crack the Bisons defense? The Gorillas rush for just 144 yards per game and just 3.8 yards per carry. They rushed for 200 or more yards just twice: against Missouri Southern, the MIAA cellar dweller and against UCO, who we all know does not have a great defense. That’s not a formula for success against this Harding defense. Now, the Gorillas have been much more formidable through the air, with seven players hauling in at least 10 receptions this year. But the Bisons have a counter to that as well, intercepting 14 passes and racking up 28 sacks. Moving the ball will be difficult for Pitt, no matter what way you look at it. Even in the Bisons only loss, they held Ouachita to just 17 points and 198 yards.
Now, where Pitt has a chance is to hold the Bisons offense down. While the flexbone looks unstoppable, it’s not. And you better believe the Gorillas are poring over the film where Ouachita held the Bisons to just 1-of-12 on third downs. The Tigers were supremely prepared to stymie the Harding rushing attack and there’s no reason the Gorillas can’t be the same. Only Central Missouri rushed for more than 118 yards against Pitt this season, and for the year, the Gorillas are allowing just 91 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. Have they seen a rushing offense like the Bisons? Absolutely not, and it would be disingenuous to try to paint the MIAA as some run-offense juggernaut of a conference. Only one team averaged over 170 yards per game on the ground this year in the MIAA: UCO on 37 carries per game. The Bisons average 425 yards per game on 59 carries per game. That’s an enormous difference when it comes to wear and tear on a defense. Can Pitt stop this ground assault? Sure, but it takes tremendous discipline for a defense to execute the same responsibility play after play. It’s boring, but necessary for the Gorillas to come out with a win. I don’t think there’s any doubt Pitt State will slow Harding down. What that looks like is important, though. It’s not enough for make their 7.5 yard per carry average four yards per carry if they still score on a 12-minute drive. You have to keep them out of the end zone.
The Gorillas are a fascinating team because their highs—beating Ferris State, winning at UCO—are really good. But across the whole season, those performances seem more like outliers than the norm. I think Harding won’t have their way with the Pitt defense. It’ll be much more of a struggle. But I also am not convinced the Gorillas will be able to move the ball effectively against the Harding defense. Give me the defending champs on the road.
Harding 28, Pitt State 14