November 1st, 2024 8:00am
The first regional rankings is a refreshing reminder of the progress the CIAA has made in managing a reasonable schedule. While the rankings are alphabetical, Johnson C. Smith’s smoldering hot start bodes well in aiming for a top seed if they can finish running the table. Virginia Union’s listing is a testament to its renewed focus since JCSU dismissed them earlier this season. Here, I think a rematch in the championship game is a good sign that the conference gets two teams. Virginia State can certainly play spoiler, but that’s a conversation for next week. Winston-Salem State’s entry was quite a surprise as the only school in Super Region two listed in the rankings with two losses; nonetheless, their very tough schedule and their 3-2 record against teams greater than .500 is attractive to the committee. Will WSSU make it to the playoffs? Unlikely. Nonetheless, it’s the first time since 2016 that WSSU has been in the conversation, and that alone is noteworthy.
This week’s slate all starts at 1pm. Game analysis, in order of interest:
Livingstone at Shaw – This game features a very productive Shaw offense versus a Livingstone defense that has kept games rather low scoring. Shaw’s offense possesses a plethora of options, especially with emerging star RB Travon Tensley. Of note, Livingstone’s QB De’Angelo Alston has continuously improved in the passing game during the season, especially as teams have dared them to run. This improvement in passing will require Shaw to step up in the secondary, something that has been a challenge for the conference’s worst pass defense. One problematic trend with Shaw is that they get behind by double digit deficits, and then attempt to claw their way back into games. Getting behind works well against below average defenses (side eyes Fayetteville State), not so much against a defense that likes to keep games low scoring. Advantage: Livingstone, the party crashers.
Fayetteville State at #19 Johnson C. Smith – FSU enters into the losing three of their four games. Of note, all three of their wins against teams with losing records. It feels as if everyone is getting their shots on FSU after their incredible Southern Division run. After Shaw breaking their nine year losing streak to FSU last week, JCSU enters into this game with its own seven game losing streak to FSU. Don’t expect FSU to have a ton of success on the ground against the conference’s best run defense. Instead, FSU will need to go to the air, which suits their style anyways. One thing to watch is to see if JCSU can romp on the accelerator on offense. A team that is averaging 400 yards of offense, but only mustering 30 points a game feels below average for the amount of effort. In this one, I do think JCSU will continue their march towards the Championship game, but expect FSU to give them some fits. Advantage: JCSU
Bowie State at Elizabeth City State – Bowie State exploded for 28 points against VUU, and showed that they were able to move the ball quite a bit later in the game. It was a refreshing change from the lackluster Bowie State offense of late. ECSU’s offense remains challenges, and it should provide Bowie the opportunity to build a comfortable margin. Advantage: Bowie State
Virginia State at Lincoln (PA) – Lincoln showed us that they could be competitive against similar competition. VSU is competing at a higher level than Lincoln and should be aiming to avoid a late season letdown like they experienced last year against ECSU. Advantage: VSU
Bluefield State at Virginia Union – Bluefield’s cellar dweller status continues after last week’s shellacking against Virginia State. Big Blue continues to struggle to establish the run, while VUU’s Jada Byers is a threat for 200 yards of rushing each game. Furthermore, the VUU defense continues to feast on squads that are not performing at a high level. Homecoming games are where VUU loves to run up the score, so it feels like VUU may be primed to score 70 in this one. BUT, any given Saturday can host an upset. Does Big Blue have what it takes to pull a Southern Nazerene? To do so, its going to have to use its air attack to get into the endzone. Advantage: The safe bet is VUU.
Idle: Winston-Salem State, who is probably still trying to figure out how to run the ball again after JCSU shut them down faster than the health department shutting down a restaurant with D rating.