October 25th, 2024 9:00am
The gauntlet continues this week with the old CIAA South grouping of teams at or above .500 going into this weekend. Of note, it feels like we sort of knows who will be in the conference championship game: some combination of Johnson C. Smith, Virginia Union, Virginia State, and Winston-Salem State – all of who will have played each other in a round robin format by the time the regular season ends. This week may or may not give us more clarity around that picture. Also of note though, is that there is a brewing fight to stay out of the basement too. Bluefield State currently holds that dubious position, but Lincoln, Elizabeth City State, and Bowie State are all fighting to stay out of that slot. So, pay attention to those races as well, because those games tend to be a bit entertaining.
This week’s games, in order of interest
#21 JCSU (7-0) at WSSU (6-2)
It feels like WSSU has had the spotlight on them for some time, and its been a product of how the schedule has been built for this season. The Rams haven’t played against a school with a losing record since week 4 versus Bowie State.
JCSU goes marching into Winston-Salem with the goal of knocking off the Rams at home for the first time in decades. A noticeable trend exists with JCSU. The Golden Bulls have found themselves a ceiling in scoring against teams with winning records at this point (21 points). All of those conference opponents with winning records have been at home. On the flip side, both schools have a common opponent – VUU – in which JCSU dispatched them, while WSSU wet the bed on the road 34-13.
It is easy to see what potential game plans may look like in this game. JCSU may look to do what Livingstone attempted last week against WSSU – shut down the run and force WSSU to pass. Such a game plan could force WSSU back into kicking field goals, which may or may not be enough in this game. On the flip side, Shaw did the same to JCSU, limited them to 60 yards rushing. Forcing Darius Ocean to pass the ball puts the game into a strength versus strength position, as he’s only tossed one interception, while WSSU is second in the conference in intercepting opponents.
The stakes in this game are extremely high. The winner of this game tightens their grip on a championship berth, while a WSSU loss puts them in a nearly insurmountable hole. Advantage: WSSU, who is undefeated at home this season.
Shaw (4-4) at Fayetteville State (3-3) – The winner of this game is set up for a non-losing season. The loser may not make it back to .500. Shaw plays the homecoming guest for the second straight week, and its also the second straight week of playing an opponent coming off a bye week. Opponents continue to exploit its secondary and strike gold as if it’s the California gold rush. That issue does create favorable conditions for Fayetteville’s offense. On the flip side, Shaw’s offense is a robust unit when it gets rolling. Its running game will face a tall task against FSU’s defensive line.
Its something about FSU at home that cautions me about picking against them. Shaw is very capable of knocking them off, but FSU is Jekyll and Hyde – they play well at home, and annoy you on the road. Advantage: Fayetteville State
Lincoln PA (1-6) at Elizabeth City State (2-5) – Since 2017, the home team has won the game. That’s all I got here.
Oh, I need to say more.
Okay – so we have Lincoln, who hasn’t been able to replicate the success of last year, but does have pieces to make games rather exciting. We also have ECSU who does have an advantage in run defense, and an offense that operates okay against lower tier opponents. Advantage: ECSU, hosting homecoming.
Virginia Union (5-2) at Bowie State (2-5) – This rivalry-ish game features VUU, who continues to avenge their loss to JCSU by bulling the rest of the conference. VUU’s offense has averaged at least 400 yards a game in three of the last four games. There’s Bowie State, who did the same against upstart Bluefield last week, and is capable of racking up yards too. Of note, VUU’s defense is known to be sack artists, and that may not bode well for Kevin Taylor and the Bowie offense. Bowie needs a low scoring affair to have a chance in this game. I just don’t see it. Bowie is dead last in the conference in punting yards per attempt, a big 10 yard difference from the conference leader, who just happens to be VUU’s Marvin Holmes. Spotting VUU’s offense extra yardage feels criminal, especially given that VUU’s offense has reestablished itself as a more dynamic scheme than just the run game. Advantage: Virginia Union
Virginia State (4-3) at Bluefield State (1-6)
It’s VSU’s turn to collect rent from Bluefield State. The Trojans lead the conference in sacks (24), and its offense has been chewing up turf to an average of 377 yards a game. Bluefield’s defense is the conference worst in total offense and total defense. Advantage: Virginia State