CIAA Week 7 Preview

October 17th, 2019 8:29pm

Last Saturday was rather predictable with the exception of one game.  St. Augustine’s win over Livingstone garnered a lot of double takes, as Livingstone was the one coming into the game with a very strong record.  St. Augustine’s certainly was struggling after the prior week’s loss at Bowie State and losing their head coach the week before that. Yet, the Falcons reeled off its best quarter this season with 13 points in the fourth quarter.  The Falcons left us all asking…what gives? 

A deeper analysis revealed that St. Augustine’s win may not have been a fluke.  The Falcons have played a schedule in which their opponents this far have a combined win-loss of 19-8 (.704).  That’s the toughest schedule anyone in the CIAA has played up to this point this year.  If you’re curious where your team stands…well, here it is:

Here are some interesting notes: 1. FSU's OWP is buoyed by Wingate.  The Broncos' OWP falls to a dismal .143 without them.  2. The same phenomenon happens Virginia Union with Lenoir-Rhyne is taken away, though the OWP of .333 isnt at bad. 3. Sorry, Blue Bears. 

Keep in mind that OWP and Opponent’s Opponents’ Win Percentage (OOWP) will significantly matter as we march towards the playoffs.  The other three conferences in Super Region II (Gulf South, South Atlantic, and Southern Intercollegiate Athletic) are putting together some good resumes, so there could be a logjam of playoff worthy teams when the first regional rankings come out. 

Chowan

You may or may not have heard, but there was an announcement today that Head Coach Tim Place took a leave of absence. Coach Place is one of the longest tenured Head Coaches in the conference and there seemed to be growing speculation about his future at the school.  Chowan has certainly had a rough start this year, but there was a lot to replace and rebuild and that showed as the season has started to wear on.  If there is one thing you learn about Coach Place, its that he's about as humble as they come.  Wherever you are Coach Place, I certainly hope everything is okay.

This week’s games (In order of importance):

#20 Bowie State (6-0) at Virginia State (5-1)

Its BSU/VSU week. One of these two teams has taken the Northern Division crown every year since 2013. These two teams are about as even as they come.  Bowie State is the ranked team, but Virginia State is also undefeated in D-II play (its one loss was to FCS Norfolk State). Both teams prefer to run than to pass (Bowie: 247 yards/game; VSU 259 yards/game), play stout run defense (BSU: 86 yards surrendered/game; VSU: 85 yards/game), score lots of points (both well over 30 points a game) and have great scoring defense (both under 15 points a game). 

There are a couple of difference makers in this game.  Bowie State is tied for leading the conference in interceptions with 11. They have been hot as of late with establishing a no-fly zone, and that could make it difficult for VSU to establish any offensive balance.  BSU also has more sacks than any other conference school, further complicating passing efforts.  The flipside is that VSU has really well about taking the ball away from its opponents.  The Trojans have a 2x turnover margin when excluding the Norfolk State game. 

Small things matter in a close up game like this one.  BSU offense is highly reliant on QB Ja’rome Johnon’s legs to extend plays and keep teams honest coupled with RB Calil Wilkins’ running ability. VSU’s offense splits the offensive workload them on the ground between QB Cordelral Cook, and RBs Demetrius Strickland, Darius Hagans, and Toure Wallace. Isn’t four better than two?

Projected Winner: VSU.  It’s homecoming, and I think that the Trojans have been hiding in the shadows for a game like this. 

Chowan (1-5) at Virginia Union (5-1)

VUU is rolling into this game on the strength of its defense, who has pitched two straight shutouts.  That stat line is rather impressive on its own.  The Panthers have offensive weaponry at key positions, starting with conference leaders in passing yards, QB Khalid Morris, and receiving yards, WR Charles Hall. One also cannot for RB Tabyus Taylor, who is third in all-purpose yardage. The flip side is Chowan’s three headed monster of QB Bryce Witt (leader in total offense), RB Deshaun Wethington, and WR Imeek Watkins.  There should be quite a bit of offense in this game. The difference will be that VUU will know when to turn the Hawks' offensive spigot off, whilst the Hawks’ defense continues to spring leaks with no end in sight. 

Projected Winner: VUU.  Simply put, VUU has to win to keep pace in the North.  This game could get close if VUU is caught looking ahead to next week.

Fayetteville State (5-1) at Johnson C. Smith (2-4)

Projected Winner: Fayetteville State. FSU is bound for a letdown somewhere, but I have a hard time believing it will be against a defense surrendering almost as many yards (374) than FSU’s average (386).  FSU’s rushing machine of Stevie Green, Johnnie Glaspie, Darnell Walker, and Elijah Henry should continue to churn up yards.  I am expecting FSU’s hostile defense to bottle up the CIAA’s leading rusher, RB Emanuel Wilson, for the second straight week. Also of note is that FSU currently has Division II’s largest positive turnover margin.  Another FSU win only tightens its vice grip on the CIAA South.

St Augustine’s (1-5) at Winston-Salem State (2-4)

Projected Winner: Winston-Salem State. WSSU continued to struggle on offense, but its defense continues to shine.  The Rams’ pass defense is tops in the conference at just over 100 yards a game, and now the Rams have two individuals who are primed to intercept the ball (Joshua Flowers, who had three interceptions last week, and Daryus Skinner).  That doesn’t bode well for a Falcons offense who likes to throw the ball.   On the flip side, WSSU’s offense is going to be challenged when taking on the tackling machines of LBs Durrell Nash and Joseph Harris Jr.  Of note is that WSSU WR Chandler Belk should be back for this game after not playing last week because of an unspecified issue.  This could be an ugly, low scoring affair, especially since neither team has topped 24 points in a single game this year.

Livingstone (4-2) at Shaw (2-4)

Projected Winner of the Bear Brawl: Shaw.  Livingstone needs this game just to bounce back after its no show versus VUU the week before last and its second-half collapse vs St. Augustine’s last week.  Shaw isn’t going to be in an accommodating mood after its struggles over the last two weeks.  The Plain Ol’ Bears are my projected winner just because of a better functioning offense.  This game’s victor continues to maintain hope that someone can upset FSU before week 10 and stay in the running for the divisional crown.  The unsuccessful team will be playing for just pride starting next week.

Lincoln (0-6) at Elizabeth City State (1-5)

Projected Winner: ECSU.  With all due respect, this is probably Lincoln’s last real competitive chance to notch a win this season. The Lions certainly have a better functioning offense this year.  The problem is ECSU has been better too.  This will be a good game to watch if you like passing, as both teams have some good WRs (particularly ECSU’s Dajuan Green, who has two 100 yard games in the last three games, and leading Lincoln WR Shoye Sampson).  In the end, I think ECSU is probably looking to dish out some payback for last season’s 21-20 setback in Pennsylvania. 

As always, check me out on Twitter and Instagram via @d2kferg for all of Saturday’s action.