September 13th, 2016 12:00am
Minnesota State and Colorado State-Pueblo ended the 2014 season by playing for the national championship in Kansas City, a game CSUP won 13-0. Fast forward 21 months and these two teams do not resemble the ones that took the field in that title game.
The Mavericks (1-1) were taken to the woodshed- at home no less- 45-17 by Bemidji State last Saturday. The MSU defense- which had been so good for a team that had gone 42-5 over the previous four seasons- provided little resistance to a Beaver offensive attack that racked up 563 yards and 30 first downs. (Sidenote: BSU junior quarterback Jordan Hein is legit)
The schedule will not do the Mavericks many favors as they move forward: Six of MSU*s last nine opponents feature good to great offensive attacks. Maybe last week was just an anomaly for a young team finding its way, but it certainly appears to me that Minnesota State is in a rebuilding mode this year.
For CSUP (0-2), the results have even been even worse. After losing 26-10 to West Texas A&M last week, the Thunderwolves have now been outscored by a 83-31 margin through two games. The main problem for CSUP is turnovers. The Thunderwolves have turned it over eight times already, including six interceptions.
It is possible that CSUP has played its two toughest games on the schedule and that the Thunderwolves will rebound and go on a winning streak against the softer part of their RMAC schedule. But you also have to keep in mind that two losses might already eliminate CSUP from playoff contention in a crowded SR4. For a program that has been in the playoffs five straight years, this would be a big disappointment.
News and Notes from around the Country
-Another name to add to an early watch list of Harlon Hill candidates would be IUP quarterback Lenny Williams. Williams rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns and passed for 380 yards and three more touchdowns in his team’s 73-42 win over East Stroudsburg.
-New program West Florida is off to a 2-0 start after beating Missouri S&T 45-28 last week. The Argonauts are led by Kaleb Nobles. The former Valdosta State quarterback has thrown for 732 yards in the first two games, including 503 yards and six scores through the air last week. UWF plays VSU in two weeks and this could be an interesting game to watch.
-For years Henderson State was one of the most prolific offensive teams in the country. But after the graduation of star quarterback Kevin Rodgers following the 2014 season, HSU was forced to rely on defense. Despite the complete change in style of play, the Reddies ground out an 11-2 record last year. They are back at it in 2016, winning their first two games and allowing just 18 total points in the process.
-No team in the country has a tougher schedule in the first half of the season that Central Missouri. The Mules* first five opponents went 46-17 last year and the list includes Pittsburg State, Emporia State and Northwest Missouri State. The Mules have passed the test so far, winning both games. If UCM can get through this stretch with at least a 4-1 record they have a great shot of reaching the playoffs.
-This year*s Grand Valley State team is a legitimate national championship contender. Through two games the Lakers have played like a machine, thoroughly dominating opponents in every phase of the game. We will find out more about GVSU as we get deeper into the season and some tougher competition shows up on the schedule, but as of right now this team reminds me of some of the old Laker national championship teams.
Top Games this Week
Carson-Newman (1-1) at Catawba (0-2)
Neither team is off to a great start, but this game definitely has conference title implications. The Indians are at home and play pretty good defense, but have struggled offensively. The C-N offense has been incredible so far, averaging 50 points and 580 yards per game. Carson-Newman 34 Catawba 27
Azusa Pacific (2-0) at Central Washington (1-1)
APU*s win at Humboldt State last week makes the Cougars the new favorite in the GNAC. This, however, would not be a good week for a letdown as it is always tough to win at CWU. The Cougars play very good defense, but must find a way to slow down CWU senior quarterback Justin Lane, who has thrown for 582 yards and six scores through two games. Azusa Pacific 28 Central Washington 27
Colorado Mesa (2-0) at Colorado Mines (2-0)
With CSU-Pueblo off to a 0-2 start, this game could very well determine the RMAC title. Mines, of course, is led by quarterback Justin Dvorak and a prolific passing attack. CMU is no slouch either offensively with quarterback Sean Rubalcaba leading the way. I like the Orediggers at home because they play better defense. Colorado Mines 41 Colorado Mesa 30
Valdosta State (1-0) at North Alabama (0-1)
I am still trying to figure out what to make of these two teams. VSU beat Albany State in the season opener but was out gained by 100 yards and out played for good stretches of the game. The Lions lost to FCS Jacksonville State, but there is no shame in that as JSU is one of the top team in the country at that level. Have to go with the Lions at home. North Alabama 29 Valdosta State 17
Delta State (1-1) at West Georgia (2-0)
UWG has not allowed a touchdown through the first two games. However, the Wolves are still trying to find an identity offensively gain some consistency. The Statesmen are good enough offensively to pose a problem if the Wolves continue to struggle to score points. West Georgia 24 Delta State 20
Central Missouri (2-0) at Missouri Western (2-0)
This has been a very entertaining series over the years. The last three games between these two teams have been decided by a total of four points, with UCM winning 18-17 last year. Another interesting angle to this game is the fact that new UCM defensive coordinator Wes Bell previously held the same position at MWSU. The Mules have played the tougher schedule and I think that experience helps them win another close game. Central Missouri 23 Missouri Western 19
Midwestern State (1-0) at Texas A&M-Kingsville (2-0)
Are the Javelinas back? After winning just six games total in the previous three seasons, TAMUK is off to a 2-0 start behind a stingy defense that allows just 185 yards per game. MSU is the defending LSC champions so this will game will provide a sense of just how much the Javelinas have improved. I have to go with an experienced MSU team in this game, but do not be surprised if it is close. Midwestern State 31 Texas A&M-Kingsville 23
Mailbag
[Q] I thought it was Opponents* Winning Percentage and Opponents* Opponents* Winning Percentage that were part of the selection criteria and not the Conference Out of Conference Winning %. Actually, couldn*t a conference going 10-2 actually be a potentially bad thing if many of the wins were against teams from the same conf (Like the NE10)? Reason being that the OOWP would be reduced for each team in the conference. For example, West Chester won their OOC game v Bentley. They obviously get the W/L benefit BUT since many NE10 teams lost to PSAC teams and Bentley plays those teams, West Chester has the potential of taking an OOWP hit regardless of how Bentley does and potentially an OWP hit if Bentley ends up being a poor team. Seems counterintuitive, but by playing and winning so many OOC games against one conference, couldn*t that negatively impact the PSAC? Granted, the effect might be small but sometimes the difference between who gets into the playoffs and who does not can be small.
[A] I do understand your point, but you have to keep in mind that the PSAC is directly competing with the NE-10 for playoff spots. Head to head results, results against common opponents and winning percentage are also major factors in determining who gets into the playoffs.
For your theory to work you would also have to assume that all of the PSAC games versus NE-10 teams came against the weakest teams. There are only ten teams in the NE-10 and the PSAC played seven of them. Each Northeast 10 team plays nine conference games and someone will have to win each game that is played.
The only way your theory might hold water is in the case where there were seven non-conference games played by PSAC teams against another 16 team league and those games happened to be against the worst seven teams. That’s not the case here.
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