October 2nd, 2012 12:00am
Some food for thought: Over the last ten seasons, no D2 national championship team has allowed more than 341 yards of total offense per game. Most of the national championship teams over the last decade have been at or below 300 yards allowed. Obviously, a team must play great defense to win a national championship.
Why would I choose to research something like this now? I got to thinking about it after Minnesota-Duluth gave up 637 yards of offense in their 51-49 last second loss to St. Cloud State last week. Great defenses led the Bulldogs to a pair of national titles over the last four seasons, but this years team allows 433 yards per game. Even with a potent offense and a four-year starter in Chase Vogler at quarterback, you can probably count UMD out of any serious national championship contention.
Then I started looking at our latest poll and came to the conclusion that two of the top three teams-- second-ranked Grand Valley State and third-ranked Colorado State-Pueblo-- do not have national championship caliber defenses either. GVSU is 5-0 but has allowed more than 40 points three times this season and also allows a staggering 488 yards per game. CSU-Pueblo allows 432 yards per game and the Thunderwolves still have to play the meat of their schedule.
So, if you are a fan of a D2 team that is off to a good start this season and you are wondering if your team has national championship potential, take a look at their defensive statistics. Those statistics will probably give you some indication if you should be making preliminary plans for a weekend in Florence.
Thoughts from Last Week
-After starting the season with a pair of solid wins, Texas A&M-Kingsville (2-3) is now in a freefall after dropping a 21-14 overtime decision against a weak Texas A&M-Commerce team last week. The Javelinas still have several tough games on the schedule (including a visit from North Alabama this week) and may be looking at a losing season if they do not get things turned around quickly.
-West Chester made five straight playoff appearances between 2004 and 2008, but slipped to just 4-7 records each of the last two years. This season, however, the Rams (4-1) appear to be back to their old form after knocking off California 37-34 last weekend. WCU joins 5-0 teams Bloomsburg and Shippensburg in what appears to be a very strong PSAC East Division. Coming into the season who would have thought that Kutztown would be at best the fourth best team in that division?
-Central Washington (4-1) served notice that they intend to take back their top spot in the GNAC with a 31-3 pasting of Humboldt State (4-1) last week. These two teams play again later this month at CWU in a game that will likely have playoff implications.
-North Greenville and Nebraska-Kearney both reached the playoffs last season and both have yet to win a game this season. UNK is finding the MIAA to be a tough animal; the Lopers five losses are to teams that are a combined 22-3 this season.
-Any question about Isiah Grimes ability to take over for the injured Heath Parling as the Grand Valley State quarterback were put to rest last week. Grimes threw for 411 yards and four touchdowns on just 17 completions. It certainly helps Grimes that he has the talented Charles Johnson (647 receiving yards, eight touchdowns this year) as a receiving target.
Top Games This Week
Hillsdale (4-1) at Wayne State (3-1)
Both teams lost their season openers but have rather quietly strung together a few wins. Both of these teams are very solid defensively, but the Chargers are more diverse offensively and should score enough points to win this game. Hillsdale 28 Wayne State 17.
Central Missouri (4-1) at Pittsburg State (4-0)
We will find out a great deal about the defending national champs in this game as they come in relatively untested. The Mules, on the other hand, have played a pair of top ten teams losing to Missouri Western and beating Northwest Missouri State. It is too much for me to pick against the defending champions at home, but UCM is very capable of winning this game. Pittsburg State 28 Central Missouri 21.
Chadron State (4-1) at CSU-Pueblo (5-0)
The Eagles will already be playing their fifth road game of the season this week and one has to wonder at what point does fatigue come into play? As I mentioned earlier, the Thunderwolves are just so-so defensively and if this game were in Chadron, I would pick the Eagles to win. I think the Thunderwolves will do just enough to win at home. CSU-Pueblo 30 Chadron State 27.
Sioux Falls (5-0) at Winona State (4-1)
This is a huge game in the NSIC South Division as the winner will emerge as the favorite to challenge Minnesota State for the division crown. The Warriors are potent offensively, but I like the Cougars in this game because of their strong defense and the way they seem to control the ball offensively in the big games. Sioux Falls 27 Winona State 24.
Mailbag
[Q] How do you feel about the different levels of success that colleges that have recently made the jump from NAIA to D2 have had the past few seasons? Lindenwood and Sioux Falls obviously had a lot of success at the previous level, but they have already jumped many existing D2 teams in the same geographical footprint (i.e. Truman State, Wayne State NE, etc) and even other teams that have made the jump (i.e. William Jewell)? Does it come down to recruiting or other factors? I understand that operating as independents does not always provide the best of opponents and that Lindenwood has yet to get into the heart of their MIAA schedule, but it appears that they just have something that the likes of OK Panhandle State, Southwest Baptist, Truman State, and other struggling programs have been missing for years.
Curtis
[A] You know the old saying "you can accomplish anything if you put your mind to it?" I think much of the success of the new D2 programs like USF and Lindenwood has to do with attitude. These teams expect to win no matter who the opponent and it is a mindset that permeates their entire program. Players want to play for programs that have tradition and a winning attitude which makes recruiting easier. I think a program like USF made the transition to D2 fully expecting to compete for playoff berths and championships right away and it appears that their vision is coming to fruition.
Contact Me
Feel free to contact me with any comments or criticisms or if you have a question you would like answered in the Mailbag.