October 6th, 2009 12:00am
The first set of regional rankings came out on Monday, but I put very little stock into them until the last two or three weeks of the season. With the way the strength of schedule calculations work, there will be fluctuations between teams each week and there is too little information right now to even make educated guesses as to who will be ranked where at the end of the regular season.
One thing I do want to make note of though in regard to regional rankings is this: Remember earlier this season how I was keeping tabs on non-conference results and saying how important they were when it comes to the playoffs?
Check out the correlation between the overall non-conference record a league has and the percentage of each league's teams that show up in the regional poll:
Super Region One
PSAC
Non-conference record: 9-5
Percentage of teams ranked in the regional poll: 31.3% (5 of 16)
WVIAC
Non-conference record: 6-6
Percentage of teams ranked: 22.2% (2 of 9)
NE-10
Non-conference record: 3-4
Percentage of teams ranked: 22.2% (2 of 9)
CIAA
Non-conference record: 5-11
Percentage of teams ranked: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Super Region Two
SAC
Non-conference record: 12-6
Percentage of teams ranked: 37.5% (3 of 8)
SIAC
Non-conference record: 5-1
Percentage of teams ranked: 30% (3 of 10)
GSC
Non-conference record: 4-5
Percentage of teams ranked: 27.3% (3 of 11)
Super Region Three
GLIAC
Non-conference record: 7-1
Percentage of teams ranked: 41.7% (5 of 12)
NSIC
Non-conference record: 5-3
Percentage of teams ranked: 28.5% (4 of 14)
RMAC
Non-conference record: 4-12
Percentage of teams ranked: 10% (1 of 10)
Super Region Four
MIAA
Non-conference record: 14-5
Percentage of teams ranked: 50% (5 of 10)
LSC
Non-conference record: 7-8
Percentage of teams ranked: 30.8% (4 of 13)
While it is too early to start speculating on specific teams, it is already obvious as to about how many spots in the playoffs each league will probably get. The leagues that did poorest in non-conference play (CIAA, NE-10, RMAC) will be fortunate to just get one team in. On the other hand, three of the leagues that did very well (GLIAC, PSAC, MIAA) each have a very good shot at a minimum of three bids.
News, Notes, and Thoughts from around the Country in Week Six
- Ouachita Baptist found out last week that it is often times easier to be the hunter than it is the hunted. The same week the Tigers made their first ever appearance in the national poll, they lost 34-32 to Arkansas-Monticello, a defeat that could haunt OBU come playoff selection time.
- The results of two other games also really caught me off guard. Number one was Findlay's 42-17 pounding of Hillsdale. The Chargers came into that game on a roll and I wasn't sold on the ability of the 5-1 Oilers. I am now.
- The second puzzler was C.W. Post's 40-24 win over Shippensburg. The Red Raiders had positioned themselves as a front-runner in the PSAC East race after four straight victories only to be derailed by the Pioneers.
- Next time someone tries to use comparative scoring to make their point, bring up this chain of events: Delta State 42 Arkansas-Monticello 3. Ouachita Baptist 38 Delta State 14. Arkansas-Monticello 34 Ouachita Baptist 32. Try to explain that.
- What has happened to the Catawba defense? They were among the top units in the country statistically heading into conference play, but have allowed over 600 rushing yards combined in losing their first two SAC games. Not a good situation to be in with a visit to Carson-Newman looming on Saturday.
- The loss of UNA center Mike Horton to a torn Achilles tendon means that the Lion offense has now taken on a complete transformation from last year. Horton was the team's only returning offensive starter.
- Grand Valley fans may be scratching their heads wondering how their Lakers can be ranked second in the first regional poll. But the GVSU's last five opponents have a combined record of 22-6 and the Lakers should be in good shape as far as seeding goes if they take care of business.
- Minnesota State has started 6-0 for the first time in 83 years and the Mavericks appear to be peaking at the right time. MSU's defense was a bit shaky early on, but has allowed a total of just 19 points in wins over Winona State and Augustana the past two weeks.
Harlon Hill Race
With last Saturday marking the season's midway point, I believe we have enough information to start handicapping the Harlon Hill race. Of course things can change, like an injury or another player coming on in the second half, but right now I think there are three players that are far and away the front-runners. They are:
Joique Bell SR RB Wayne State (MI)
Key Stats: 186 carries, 1162 yards, 15 touchdowns; 11 receptions, 116 yards, 1 touchdown.
Bell has had a great career and he appears to be capping it off with his best season yet. His team is 5-1 and in contention for a playoff berth, plus he is averaging 31 carries per game, so he is going to get plenty of touches.
Isaac Odim JR RB Minnesota-Duluth
Key Stats: 108 carries, 927 yards, 16 touchdowns rushing; 10 receptions, 136 yards, 2 touchdowns receiving; 5 kickoff returns for 200 yards and a touchdown.
Odim has less carries than Bell because his team has been so dominant, but yet he leads the nation in scoring with 114 points and yards per carry (8.5). There is little doubt in my mind that he and Bell are the best two backs in the country.
Brad Iciek SR QB Grand Valley State
Key Stats: 1326 passing yards, 181.64 pass efficiency rating, 17 TDs, 0 INTs
When the quarterback of the nation's top ranked team is having a season like this, it merits heavy consideration for the award. What may hold Iciek back is that he doesn't put up huge yardage numbers, but he is second in the country in pass efficiency and a big fat zero in the interception category is hard to ignore.
Top Games this Week
Southern Connecticut State (4-2) at Bentley (5-1)
Bentley has a strong defense, but the SCSU offense has gotten going the last two weeks. The Owls' trio of running backs (Jarom Freeman, John Weichman, Rashaad Slowley) will be too much to handle. SCSU 28 Bentley 17.
Washburn (5-1) at Nebraska-Omaha (4-2)
Both teams come into this game with one conference loss, so this will be a pivotal game in the MIAA and playoff races.
Ichabod quarterback Dane Simoneau and UNO's Greg Wunderlich have both been surprisingly good throwing the football this season and it will be the defense that can slow the opposition down that will win. I will take the Mavericks at home. Nebraska-Omaha 31 Washburn 24.
Wayne State (5-1) at Northern Michigan (4-1)
The surprising Wildcats will try to keep it going in their biggest home game in years.
The two teams are similar in that they like to run the ball and both are stout defensively. WSU, of course, relies on Joique Bell while NMU has a running back by committee approach. I've been very impressed by the job former Saginaw Valley head coach Randy Awrey has done as the Wildcat defensive coordinator and look for him to find a way to slow down Bell just enough this week. Northern Michigan 22 Wayne State 21.
Bloomsburg (6-0) at East Stroudsburg (5-1)
ESU surprising West Chester last week combined with Shippensburg's loss to C.W. Post makes the winner of this game the front runner in the PSAC East Division.
Matt Marshall's passing ability will challenge the BU defense, but the Huskies have been after opposing quarterbacks all season. Plus the Husky running game is starting to come around which means trouble for opponents. Bloomsburg 27 East Stroudsburg 14.
Abilene Christian (6-0) at Angelo State (5-1)
A healthy Josh Neiswander has made a world of difference for the Rams, as his passing has led the team to its best start in four years.
I expect this to be a defensive minded game. ACU allows just 33 yards per game rushing while the Rams have racked up an incredible 27 quarterback sacks already. I think ACU has a few more athletes overall, but do not surprised if this is a very competitive game. Abilene Christian 24 Angelo State 17.
Midwestern State (5-1) at Tarleton State (5-1)
It's still early, but with many tough games still to go for both teams, this is probably an elimination game both as far as the LSC South race is concerned and likely the playoffs.
MSU's Zach Eskridge is tops in the country in passing efficiency, while the Texans prefer to pound the football on the ground. These teams also feature the top two scoring defenses in the league so this should be a battle. TSU let me down last week by turning the ball over a bunch of times in a loss to Texas A&M-Kingsville and I suspect that they will want to atone for all of those mistakes. Tarleton State 23 Midwestern State 20.
Mailbag
[Q] Why do you think that over the last decade the circus freak offenses all seem to be centered around a 150 mile area? You have Division I Texas Tech with crazy yardage through the 2000's, and now West Texas and Eastern New Mexico in Division II. All of these teams are geographically proximate to each other and they have all employed similar offenses.
Brent
[A] I'm guessing much of it has to do with Mike Leach at Texas Tech. He brought the offense with him to TTU and had some success with it, and it began spilling over into the smaller colleges in the area. Keep in mind that you also had Hal Mumme at New Mexico State (although he was fired after last year) in that same general area, and he was running a similar scheme.
[Q] I have noticed that some of these new programs like Colorado State-Pueblo and North Carolina-Pembroke have not taken long to have good teams. Why are they able to be good so soon?
John
[A] Because many of these new programs are doing things the right way. They hired coaches early so they could get a couple of recruiting classes in before they started playing. They have built great facilities and have administrations that are providing the financial support in the way of scholarships. Instead of just being happy fielding a football team, these schools are making a commitment towards being successful, and that commitment starts at the top with the presidents.
Incarnate Word is another new program that fits this profile, although it may take UIW longer to be competitive because the school will be playing in the tough LSC South.
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