December 4th, 2007 12:00am
If I only had a dollar for every email I received this week wondering why GVSU was playing on the road… well, you know how that story goes.
The Laker Nation is upset, not able to comprehend how a team that has won 40 straight games and is the two-time defending national champs can be sent on the road to face a one-loss team.
The bottom line is this: Grand Valley had a very poor strength of schedule due to the fact that just one regular season opponent finished with less than five losses. Much of this was not the Lakers' fault, as they are forced to play a rotating 10-game conference schedule and had the misfortune of not playing two of the top three teams in their league this year.
On the other hand, an almost unbelievable nine of Northwest Missouri's twelve opponents thus far finished the season with winning records. Three of those teams had just one loss. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they are facing a one-loss team with an astronomical strength of schedule. That's just the way it goes sometimes.
If there is any criticism someone could use to try to diminish GVSU's winning streak, it would be the fact that the Lakers really haven't had to win any significant road games over the last three seasons. A win on Saturday would certainly put an end to that talk.
Harlon Hill Finalists Announced
The three Harlon Hill finalists are Abilene Christian running back Bernard Scott, Chadron State running back Danny Woodhead, and Delta State linebacker Michael Eubanks. The winner will be announced at a banquet in Florence on December 14th (the night before the national championship game). I don't think there is any big surprise with these three players being selected. I'll be back next week to chime in with my opinion on who should win the award.
National Semifinals
Valdosta State (11-1) @ California (13-0)
TV: Saturday on ESPNU at 11 A.M. Eastern
California by the numbers:
Offensive averages: 36.8 points, 383 total yards
Defensive averages: 10.2 points, 199 total yards
Offensive players to watch: #16 QB Joe Ruggerio, #10 WR Nate Forse, #72 OL Tim McCutcheon
Defensive players to watch: #31 DE Kirby Griffin, #7 OLB Gary Butler, #42 OLB Darren Burns
Valdosta State by the numbers:
Offensive averages: 40.9 points, 441 total yards
Defensive averages: 16.4 points, 327 total yards
Offensive players to watch: #8 WR Cedric Jones, #27 RB Michael Perry, #56 OL Gerald Davis
Defensive players to watch: #48 LB William Montford, #10 S Sherard Reynolds, #47 DE Travis Harrison
Keys to the game for California:
-Tackle well in space. VSU's offense is designed to get its best athletes the football in space and then let them make plays. It is imperative that the Vulcans' linebackers and secondary tackle well and make the Blazers earn every yard.
-Don't allow any big returns. The Blazers have been terrific on special teams in the playoffs, scoring three times on returns last week in the win over North Alabama. California also gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown last week. The Vulcans must play well on special teams to have a chance.
-Adjust quickly to VSU's defensive speed. The Blazers are by far the fastest defensive team the Vulcans have faced this season and speedy defenses are good at causing turnovers. Cal must take care of the football and quarterback Joe Ruggerio must "make sure" on his reads before throwing the ball.
Keys to the game for Valdosta State:
-Establish the running game with Michael Terry. The Vulcans have been outstanding all season at making opposing offenses one dimensional by forcing them to pass. They limited Shepherd star Dervon Wallace to just 51 yards on 21 carries last week and the Blazers will struggle if Terry is limited to similar numbers.
-Find ways to neutralize Gary Butler and Darren Burns. Butler and Burns are the outside linebackers in Cal's 3-4 defense and they have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses all year long, racking up 21.5 sacks between them. The Blazer offensive line must be cognizant of when and from where those two players are bringing pressure on the quarterback.
-Stop the run. I think Cal would love to run the ball 45-50 times in this game to help negate some of VSU's defensive speed and control the tempo. The Blazers want a game with more short drives and more possessions to make better use of their athleticism on special teams and in the open field. They can't do that if the Vulcans can control the game with their rushing attack.
Prediction: I have struggled all week with which way to go on this game. Part of me thinks that in Cal we finally have a Northeast Region team capable of playing with the nation's best and they will use their home field advantage to reach the finals. The other part of me feels that Valdosta State is just too athletic for the Vulcans to match for four quarters. I do think this, however: it should be a very entertaining game. Valdosta State 27 California 20.
Grand Valley (12-0) @ Northwest Missouri State (11-1)
TV: Saturday on ESPN2 at 9:00 P.M. Eastern
Grand Valley by the numbers:
Offensive averages: 40.1 points, 480 yards
Defensive averages: 12.9 points, 285 yards
Offensive players to watch: #13 QB Brad Iciek, #61 OL Brandon Barnes, #85 WR Antione Trent
Defensive players to watch: #4 LB Anthony Adams, #24 DB Brandon Carr, #33 DL Dan Skuta
Northwest Missouri by the numbers:
Offensive averages: 39.1 points, 451 yards
Defensive averages: 18.6 points, 311 yards
Offensive players to watch: #2 RB Xavier Omon, #89 TE Mike Peterson, #71 OL Reid Kirby
Defensive players to watch: #46 LB Jerrad Ersparmer, #98 DT Terry Bilbro, #15 S Miles Burnsides
Keys to the game for Grand Valley:
-Weather the initial storm. The Bearcats will come out flying high with a big and loud home crowd behind them. Plus, as I noted earlier, the Lakers have not had to play many significant road games during their current 40-game winning streak. It will be imperative that GVSU play well early. Seven points on the opening drive would really be helpful.
-Slow down Omon. Notice I didn't say stop Omon, because I don't know if any defense is capable of that. But GVSU must contain him and hold him to under 150 yards on the ground. If the Lakers can force sure passing situations, they have a huge advantage.
-Grind it out on offense. The teams that have played the Bearcats tough this season (Nebraska-Omaha, Pittsburg State, Washburn) have all been teams that have kept chipping away with the running game and gone toe to toe with the Bearcat defense from a physical standpoint. With a young quarterback and a great offensive line, I think this is the approach GVSU should take in this game.
Keys to the game for Northwest Missouri:
-Pass when they want to pass. What I mean is this: the Bearcats can have success throwing the football, but only if they can set up the pass off of play action fakes to keep the Lakers off balance. If the Bearcats are forced to throw 35+ times to stay in the game, they are in big trouble.
-Win the special teams battle. The Lakers don't have much of a kicking game, while Northwest kicker Tommy Frevert is capable of converting inside of 45 yards. The Bearcats might be able to steal three or six extra points by converting on scoring opportunities that GVSU misses. Being the underdog, anything positive that Northwest can do on special teams to swing the game in its favor will be huge.
-Ride Omon. It doesn't make a difference if it takes 35, 40, or 45 carries… Northwest must continue to give the ball to Omon and stick with it, even if Grand Valley succeeds at shutting him down in stretches. As I mentioned earlier, the Bearcats don't have much of a chance if they have to throw the ball a whole lot and Omon is their best shot to win the game.
Prediction: I think this will be a very good game, similar to the GVSU/NWMSU championship game match ups the past two years. The home field is a definite advantage for the Bearcats, but I think the Lakers still have to be favored just because they are more talented defensively and have more playmakers on offense. Grand Valley 24 Northwest Missouri 19.
Mailbag
[Q] I see that one of D-II's most successful coaches, Randy Awrey at Saginaw Valley, was fired this past week for what appeared to be pretty minor NCAA violations. Why would SVSU get rid of such a successful coach under these circumstances?
John
[A] I have been told that Awrey's relationship with the administration at SVSU had been strained at times. So I'm purely speculating here, but maybe the school wanted him out and this was a perfect opportunity to pull the plug?
So, I don't have a real good answer for you John, but I do know these two things: One, there is more to this firing than what we know now. It's very telling to me that no one from SVSU has spoken publicly about the matter at this point. And two, Awrey is a terrific football coach who will land on his feet somewhere else, hopefully as a D-II head coach at another school.
Contact Me
Have a question, comment, or criticism? Want to have your question answered in the weekly Mailbag? Have a suggestion for a podcasting subject? Email Bob.